Georgia vs. Missouri odds, spread, lines: Week 5 college football picks, predictions by computer model
A pair of SEC East rivals meet up as defending national champion Georgia travels to Missouri in college football's Week 5 action on Saturday.
Georgia looked mortal last week after a close win over Kent State, but remains perfect through four games, while Missouri checks in at 2-2 after a heartbreaking loss on the road to Auburn.
What do the experts think of the matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.
Georgia vs. Missouri odds, lines, predictions
Week 5 college football picks: Georgia vs. Missouri
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As expected, the index is siding strongly with the visitors, as Georgia has the outsized 94.8 percent chance to defeat Missouri on Saturday.
That leaves the Tigers a 5.2 percent shot to defend its home turf against the Bulldogs.
The oddsmakers agree, naming Georgia the comfortable 27.5 point favorites, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the over/under mark at 54.5 points for the game.
Georgia dropped in the computer's 131 college football rankings, 2 spots to the No. 3 overall position despite staying undefeated.
As a predictive model rather than a basic power ranking, the FPI projects the Bulldogs may have a slightly tougher time than Alabama, which jumped Georgia for the pole position on the index. Ohio State placed second.
Not too much tougher, though: the Bulldogs are still projected to win 11.8 games on the season, with a 71.7 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff, and a 21.4 percent shot to win, both behind Alabama.
The index estimates Georgia will be an average of 27.2 points better than the teams on its schedule week to week going forward.
AP top 25 voters kept Georgia in the No. 1 position in this week's poll despite the team's struggles against Kent State.
Missouri, No. 64 on the national FPI poll, is projected to win 5.2 games this season and the computer estimates it will be 0.3 points worse on average than its opponents week to week.
Related: College football scores | College football rankings | College football schedule
College Football Power Index
Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.
Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.
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College football rankings
According to AP top 25 poll
- Georgia
- Alabama
- Ohio State
- Michigan
- Clemson
- USC
- Kentucky
- Tennessee
- Oklahoma State
- NC State
- Penn State
- Utah
- Oregon
- Ole Miss
- Washington
- Baylor
- Texas A&M
- Oklahoma
- BYU
- Arkansas
- Minnesota
- Wake Forest
- Florida State
- Pittsburgh
- Kansas State