Ole Miss vs. LSU preview, prediction: Week 8 college football picks
Two old SEC West rivals meet up in Death Valley as LSU welcomes Ole Miss in college football's Week 8 action on Saturday.
The matchup puts the Rebels' perfect 7-0 record on the line, a mark the team has played to just twice since the national championship season in 1962. The other year was 2014, when Ole Miss lost its eighth game, at LSU.
Meanwhile, Brian Kelly gained some important footing last week by defeating rival Florida on the road behind a dominant offensive performance. Not enough to be ranked again, but a win this week could change that.
Here's what you need to know about Saturday's matchup.
Ole Miss vs. LSU preview, prediction
Week 8 college football predictions: Ole Miss vs. LSU
How to watch
When: Sat., Oct. 22
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET, 2:30 p.m. CT
TV: CBS network
Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
More college football on SI: College football scores | College football rankings | College football schedule
Odds, point spread, betting lines
Odds courtesy of SI Sportsbook
Line: LSU -2
Ole Miss ATS: 3-4
LSU ATS: 4-3
Over/under: 66
Moneyline: MISS +100, LSU -125
FPI pick: LSU 51.3%
Related: Ole Miss vs. LSU picks, predictions: Week 8 college football odds, spread, lines
Ole Miss vs. LSU: What you need to know
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1. Contain Jayden Daniels. The gifted quarterback for LSU is enough of a threat when throwing the ball: he's a near 70% passer with over 1,500 yards and 10 touchdowns against just a single interception. But Daniels is also LSU's leading rusher on the year, and it's not really close. He has 33 percent of the team's rushing yards, 35 percent of its rushing attempts, and 32 percent of its rushing touchdowns. Ole Miss needs to minimize Daniels' threat as a runner and force him to win the game with his arm.
2. Battle of the backs. It's no secret what's powering the Rebels offense right now, and that's the nation's 3rd ranked rushing attack, good for just under 272 yards per game on the ground, and the most touchdowns from running backs (24). Collectively, Ole Miss' top three runners average 5.8 ypc and combine for 21 touchdowns on the year. Critically, LSU could get Armoni Goodwin back after he missed 3 games with a hamstring injury. Despite his absence, he's still 2nd on the team with 5 rushing TDs, and 1st at 5.9 yards per carry. But don't overlook Josh Williams, who got the game ball after the Florida win, leads all LSU backs in yardage and is a solid pass catcher and blocker in the pass game, too.
3. Rebels' missed tackles. Ole Miss didn't put out a perfect product in the middle portion of last week's win over Auburn, which had a 24-7 scoring stretch at one point in the game. Rebs safety AJ Finley said the big issue during that stretch was the defense missing too many tackles and letting ball carriers get extra yards after contact, an issue that goes back two games, when Vanderbilt had a 10-point lead on this team. Ole Miss needs to get more physical, limit gainers at the point of attack, and force longer second and third downs.
Fast Facts
+ Home team has won 8 of the last 10 in the Ole Miss-LSU series
+ 94.8% of Ole Miss' offense has come from transfers or Quinshon Judkins
+ LSU has won 10 straight games when scoring 30 points
+ Rebels have not started a season 8-0 since 1962, when it was national champion
+ LSU has allowed 34 combined points in the last five second halves of games
+ Rebs receiver Jonathan Mingo is 1st in SEC with 23.05 yards per catch
+ LSU's Jayden Daniels is 5th in the SEC with a 69.2% completion mark
+ Jaxson Dart is 7th in FBS with 14.9 yards per pass completion
+ LSU is 16th nationally in red zone defense (.750)
+ Ole Miss is 3rd in FBS allowing 0.43 sacks per game
+ LSU has 28 plays of 20-plus yards, 18 in the air and 10 on the ground
+ Rebels are 3rd nationally converting third downs on 55.2% of attempts
+ LSU has won 6 straight over Ole Miss at home
+ Ole Miss has forced a turnover in 27 of 30 games under Lane Kiffin
+ LSU is 4-1 against undefeated, top 10 ranked Ole Miss teams at home
+ Rebels are 18-2 when scoring first under Kiffin and 4-6 when not
+ Brian Kelly is 2-1 all-time against Lane Kiffin
+ Ole Miss is 20-0 under Kiffin leading at halftime and 2-6 when trailing
Ole Miss vs. LSU Prediction
LSU averages just 4.7 tackles for loss per game, ranking 106th nationally, and despite its relative strength on the front seven, is still having trouble consistently forcing the issue at the line and producing negative plays.
That plays into the Rebels' strength running the football, but there are still big question marks hovering over this team: a sluggish 7-point win over Tulsa at home, the 10-point deficit at Vandy before the comeback, and the mid-game lull against Auburn, which ran for over 300 yards in that matchup.
Daniels is enough of a dual threat to test the Rebels' front seven on a battery of medium gainers with his legs, and he's maturing as a passer, building confidence to test the deeper portion of the field.
But watching LSU struggle stopping the Gators running the ball last week doesn't bode well for its ability to do so against a superior Rebels backfield, which has the power and the speed inside and out to move the chains and build and preserve leads.
College Football HQ Prediction: Ole Miss 31, LSU 27
College football rankings
According to AP top 25 poll
- Georgia
- Ohio State
- Tennessee
- Clemson
- Michigan
- Alabama
- Ole Miss
- TCU
- UCLA
- Oregon
- Oklahoma State
- USC
- Wake Forest
- Syracuse
- Utah
- Penn State
- Kansas State
- Illinois
- Kentucky
- Texas
- Cincinnati
- North Carolina
- NC State
- Mississippi State
- Tulane