$4 million QB predicted to be No.1 pick if he declares for 2026 NFL Draft

History is notoriously circular and that lesson might even apply to NFL Draft evaluation. After an interesting 2025 season in which a bevy of top QBs have been speculated as top picks in the 2026 Draft, one NFL Draft evaluator sees a familiar face potentially atop the Draft. The Athletic's Mike Tice isn't buying stock in Oregon's Dante Moore or Indiana's Fernando Mendoza for that spot. No, Tice recently named Texas's Arch Manning potentially atop his NFL Draft board.

Tice's Surprise Pick

Arch Manning, if he were to declare... would be the No. 1 pick
Mike Tice

Far from arguing that he was taken out of context, Tice engaged in a lengthy social media discussion on what he sees as the merits of Manning. Suffice it to say, this was more than a bit surprising after a season in which Manning started as a likely No. 1 pick but has been so inconsistent that Mel Kiper indicated weeks ago that he wasn't even considering Manning as a 2026 prospect, because he would be back in school. Even Manning's projected NIL valuation has taken a hit throughout the season.

Tice Defends Manning

Manning deals with constant pressure and multiple drops from his teammates every week. He's not perfect, but he is also the main driver of this offense that is wildly inconsistent. And you get to see him move and operate from muddy pockets and throw off-platform.
Mike Tice

Texas's offensive line frankly doesn't necessarily match Tice's description. Texas has allowed 21 sacks on the season, which is eighth in the SEC, but not appreciably worse than Diego Pavia's line at Vandy (18 sacks) or Ty SImpson's at Alabama (20 sacks).

Some Manning Struggles

More accurately, Manning seems to have massive consistency problems. In Texas's three losses this season, he has four touchdowns and four interceptions. He's had a couple of genuinely awful games against defenses that don't particularly move the needle. Manning was 11 for 25 for 114 yards with a touchdown and a pick against UTEP. That's the season low in passing yardage allowed and yards per pass allowed by a 2-9 UTEP team.

Manning also went 12 for 27 for 132 yards and no scores in an overtime win against Kentucky. That same Kentucky defense allowed 330 passing yards to Eastern Michigan, 396 passing yards to Tennessee and 539 passing yards to Vanderbilt. FCS Tennessee Tech is the only team Kentucky faced that threw for fewer yards-- and that team had better yards per pass numbers than Manning and did throw a touchdown.

The overall case for 2026

Manning does have impressive athleticism and has shown flashes of NFL-ready tools, passing for 2,763 yards and 23 touchdowns. But his QB rating trails not only Diego Pavia, Ty Simpson, and Marcel Reed in QB rating, but also Joey Aguilar, Gunner Stockton, and Trinidad Chambliss. While most in the NFL Draft media seem to be elevating Dante Moore, Fernando Mendoza or even Ty Simpson to the top of their respective boards, Tice is riding with Manning. It might be a lonely club.

After a difficult season, could Arch Manning still end up No. 1 in the 2026 NFL Draft? | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images