Mel Kiper drops hyped SEC quarterback from his top five 2026 NFL Draft QB prospects

For ESPN analyst Mel Kiper, all that glitters may not be gold. Long noted for his pronounced opinions about NFL prospects, in an appearance on the First Draft podcast, Kiper dropped a preseason college football star from his consideration of the top five NFL Draft-available QBs. Texas's Arch Manning was the under-performing prospect who Kiper just knocked off his board.

Kiper's thoughts

Kiper was asked about his top five quarterbacks. He noted that Miami's Carson Beck "has to be right there." Other quarterbacks mentioned included Fernando Mendoza, Ty Simpson, John Mateer, and LaNorris Sellers. But then Kiper pivoted to a quarterback he is not including in that list.

I'm going to leave Arch Manning out of that equation because he wouldn't be in there anyway. I said take him off the board, just let him play college football.
Mel Kiper

Kiper included Manning among a group of disappointing quarterbacks who might have earned that top five designation before the season, but would not now. Other names he mentioned included Nico Iamaleava, Cade Klubnik, and Garrett Nussmeier.

Arch's fall

Manning began the season as a favorite for the Heisman Trophy and a potential No. 1 overall NFL Draft pick. That narrative didn't last long as Ohio State took down his Texas team 14-7 in Week 1 and held Manning to 170 passing yards and one touchdown. Since then, there have been other stumbles. Manning was 11 for 25 for 114 yards against UTEP. He was significantly outplayed by DJ Lagway in Texas's Week 6 loss to Florida.

On the year, Manning is completing exactly 60% of his passes for 1,151 yards, 11 touchdowns and five interceptions. That places him 9th in SEC quarterbacks in passer rating, behind players like Beau Pribula and Marcel Reed.

Manning's accuracy has been a concern, to the extent that occasional rumors have circulated about some manner of injury. In any case, the unranked 3-2 Longhorns are one of the disappointments of the season and Manning's performance leads Kiper to conclude that his best course is to stay in school and consider the 2027 NFL Draft.