$5.3 million college football QB favorited for 2026 Heisman Trophy

Texas entered the 2025 season as the preseason No. 1 team and a national title favorite but finished 10–3 (6–2 SEC), missing the expanded College Football Playoff and settling for a Citrus Bowl victory over Michigan.

Even with the bowl win and multiple ranked victories, including vs. No. 6 Oklahoma, vs. No. 9 Vanderbilt, and at No. 3 Texas A&M, the season was widely viewed as a disappointment relative to expectations, particularly given the Longhorns’ talent level.

That same theme extended to quarterback Arch Manning, who entered 2025 among the early Heisman favorites but delivered an uneven season and failed to emerge as a finalist, despite flashes of elite ability.

Looking ahead to 2026, however, optimism has resurfaced. FanDuel Sportsbook has once again positioned Manning near the top of the Heisman market, listing him at +850, second only to Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr (+800).

2026 HEISMAN ODDS ARE HERE 🚨

CJ Carr & Arch Manning lead the way 😤 pic.twitter.com/yNWFGeh9Uq
— FanDuel Sportsbook (@FDSportsbook) January 20, 2026

After spending his first two seasons in Austin backing up All-SEC quarterback Quinn Ewers, Arch Manning emerged as Texas’ full-time starter ahead of the 2025 season.

In his first year as the starter, Manning completed 248 of 404 passes (61.4%) for 3,163 yards, 26 passing touchdowns, and seven interceptions, while adding 399 rushing yards and 10 rushing scores, finishing the season with a 144.9 passer rating.

His 10 rushing touchdowns tied for the most among SEC quarterbacks, alongside Georgia’s Gunner Stockton.

He also ranks as the most valuable athlete in college sports according to On3, with an estimated NIL valuation of approximately $5.3 million.

Still, the season was marked by inconsistency, with high-end performances offset by uneven stretches and an October concussion that briefly interrupted his availability and rhythm.

Despite offseason speculation that he could declare early for the NFL Draft, Manning announced in mid-December that he will return to Texas for the 2026 season rather than turn pro.

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning. — Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning warms up before a game against the Texas A&M Aggies | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

Manning arrived at Texas as one of the most high-profile high school quarterback recruits of the modern era, carrying the Manning family pedigree and enormous media and betting expectations, which only intensified the preseason hype and subsequent scrutiny when results proved uneven.

Carr, meanwhile, emerged as Notre Dame’s redshirt freshman starter in 2025 and delivered a highly efficient debut season, throwing for 2,741 yards, 24 touchdowns, and six interceptions while completing 66.6% of his passes and posting a 168.1 passer rating.

Both quarterbacks led their respective programs to 10-win seasons, but neither Texas nor Notre Dame reached the College Football Playoff.

As a result, two of the sport’s most recognizable brands enter 2026 with renewed urgency and heightened expectations to reassert themselves as national title contenders.

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