Texas star Arch Manning predicted to replace surging $14 Million QB in NFL draft

Texas quarterback Arch Manning's NFL draft projections are complicated as the Longhorns signal-caller could opt to return to Austin for 2026. This scenario would have Manning likely entering the 2027 NFL draft instead of turning pro in 2026.

There are still NFL draft predictions for where Manning could be selected if the star opts for the 2026 path. Manning's NFL draft stock is a sliding scale as a strong November finish can only help the quarterback given his slow start.

Here's what you need to know about Manning's NFL draft predictions.

Texas QB Arch Manning predicted to be selected by the Colts in 2026 NFL mock draft

Many of the latest NFL mock drafts have Manning absent from the first round. Back in October, The Athletic's Nick Baumgardner projected the Colts to select Manning with the No. 28 pick in his mock draft.

Arch Manning made the Zach Wilson Pro Day throw in a real game pic.twitter.com/PXrZiVUh64
— NFL Draft Files (@NFL_DF) October 27, 2025

"How’s this for a good time? Manning has not had the start scouts were looking for, so it begs the question: Is the player we’ve seen over the season’s first month a glimpse at what Manning will ultimately become?" Baumgardner wrote on Oct. 2.

"... His arm talent is still elite, and though he probably needs another season at Texas, he’s going to be on every QB-needy team’s radar until he officially says he’s heading back to Austin for 2026."

The Colts could be a prime NFL landing spot for Arch Manning with the potential to learn behind Daniel Jones

This scenario could be ideal for Manning given the presence of Daniel Jones. The Colts quarterback has had a strong 2025 campaign, but Jones still has a ways to go before Indy decides the veteran can be a franchise quarterback.

Arch Manning haters are sick right now.

His growth in the last 2 games has been promising.

-Back to back 325+ yard and 3 TD games
-Nearly 70% completion percentage
-7 total TDS and 1 Int
-93.1 QBR to upset Vanderbilt

Some people crushed him because he wasn’t a finished Super… pic.twitter.com/7sPPUj2qZh
— Robert Griffin III (@RGIII) November 5, 2025

Jones is also on a one-year, $14 million contract, putting his future with the Colts in doubt. Indianapolis could look to re-sign Jones which would create an opportunity for Manning to potentially learn behind the former top-10 NFL draft pick.

Texas QB Arch Manning is a more likely candidate for the 2027 NFL draft

It still appears to be a long shot that Manning will enter the 2026 NFL draft. Even when Manning was dubbed as the favorite to be the No. 1 pick, there was a growing buzz the quarterback could wait until the 2027 NFL draft.

Both things can be true: Manning can improve his stock to finish this college football season and still opt to skip the 2026 NFL draft. Manning may strongly benefit from becoming more polished as a quarterback with another season at Texas before heading to the NFL in 2027.

“Since Oklahoma, and then this last outing that he had, I think Arch has grown leaps and bounds," The Ringer's Todd McShay noted on his podcast, per On3. "And I told you, Arch is dealing right now.”