Championship Week Upset Alert: ranking the potential upsets of the week

In the weekly tally of potential upsets, it's a thin sheet this week. Normally, we bring you eight teams in danger of substantial upsets. The normal ground rules is that a game wasn't under consideration unless it had a -5 or greater favorite. But under those rules, only two of the nine championship games would be eligible for picking.

So it's something different this week. We're ranking the likelihood of an upset in all nine conference championship games-- and giving a reason why each time might be upset.

9. James Madison (-23.5 vs. Troy)

This is the tough sell, because James Madison is a massive favorite to win the Sun Belt. Bob Chesney is still coaching the Dukes, so that angle is out the window. The only real angle here is pure hubris. After all the talk about CFP bids (which is still very much in play for JMU with an upset by Duke over Virginia), JMU might be looking past Troy.

8. Texas Tech (-12.5 vs BYU)

Tech blasted BYU just a few weeks ago by a 29-7 count. What could possibly change? Well, here's one possibility. In that game, BYU had three turnovers, taking a -3 turnover margin. That's incredibly atypical for the Cougars. On the season, BYU is +12 in turnovers (third in the Big 12, right behind TTU at +13). In fact, the 10 turnovers all season by BYU is least in the conference-- it's 11th best in all of college football. If BYU plays a more typical game, they might have a shot at the Red Raiders.

7. Virginia (-4 vs. Duke)

This one is a tough sell. Duke just lost to Virginia by a 34-17 count on November 15th. Here's the upside. Darrian Mensah had just 6.1 yards per pass attempt in that game. That's tied for second worst on the year for the outstanding Duke QB, who averaged 8.1 yards per pass on the season with 28 touchdowns against four interceptions. If the Blue Devils can get more efficiency from Mensah, they can pull the upset.

6. Boise State (-4.5 vs. UNLV)

Yes, UNLV has a 10-2 mark while Boise is just 8-4. But there's an element of UNLV maybe being more lucky than good. They opened the season with a one-score win over an FCS opponent. Five of their 10 wins came by a single-score margin. But that's the thing-- UNLV will keep this game close, while Boise has just one single-score win all season. Dan Mullen's team will lean on its close-game experience to steal a win.

5. Kennesaw State (-2.5 vs. Jacksonville St.)

Kennesaw State already lost to Jacksonville State 35-26 on November 15th. in their last three games, Kennesaw has allowed 35, 34, and 42 points. That sounds like a defense that is in serious danger of a title game beatdown.

4. North Texas (-2.5 vs. Tulane)

See the points on UNLV above. Tulane has driven Jon Sumrall crazy, with five one-score wins on the season. North Texas has blown out virtually everyone it played. But in a championship game setting, if a blowout doesn't come, Tulane will lean on close-game experience and reel in a win.

3. Georgia (-2.5 vs. Alabama)

How did Alabama beat Georgia once? Because this is a patient offensive team. Georgia's defense is unusual-- it's a bend-but-don't-break look. UGA Is last in the SEC in sacks (17) and tackles for loss (52) and doesn't have a very high turnover forced number (11). But their scheme still works against most teams because they lack the patience to chew up solid play after solid play. Alabama does.

2. Western Michigan (-1.5 vs. Miami)

Western Michigan is a one-dimensional offense. The Broncos average 142.3 yards per game in passing, 11th in the MAC. Their eight touchdown passes thrown tie for the bottom of the conference. Miami of Ohio also forced 20 turnovers this season, so they'll put the Broncos in tough situations and then capitalize.

1. Ohio State (-4 vs. Indiana)

Fernando Mendoza. Will it happen? Who knows... but if it does, everybody will know WHY it happened.