Eight college football teams on upset alert in Week 12

With the stretch run of the college football season arises numerous upset opportunities. As usual, no game with a point spread of under -5 meets consideration as a genuine upset. But here are eight teams that are subject to legitimate upset fears, either in terms of failing to cover or an outright Week 12 loss.

Michigan (-10.5 at Northwestern)

The Wolverines could get a real challenge here. Northwestern is similar to Michigan-- a defense-first team that's more about efficiency than explosiveness. USC's passing game cut Northwestern up a bit, but Michigan's ground attack fits a little better into the Wildcats' profile. This feels like a very competitive matchup.

Cincinnati (-6.5 vs. Arizona)

Cincinnati comes off a beatdown at the hands of Utah last week. Arizona's last five games are three wins and a pair of one-score losses. The Wildcats stick close to their competition and Noah Fifita's 23 touchdowns to four interceptions should trouble the Bearcats significantly. This could be a Big 12 upset cooking.

Alabama (-5.5 vs. Oklahoma)

Alabama and Ty Simpson could be in serious upset danger against Oklahoma in a big Week 12 battle. | David Leong-Imagn Images

Alabama has been living a bit dangerously on offense. The lack of a consistent deep passing game makes them probably a little more susceptible than most strong CFP contenders. Oklahoma has been up and down but Mateer follows the 2024 Diego Pavia playbook of a dual-threat grinder who can potentially outlast the Tide.

USC (-6.5 vs. Iowa)

Iowa comes off a week when they hung blow for blow with an Oregon team that's like a richer's man version of USC. The big-time passing attack won't intimate an Iowa team averaging 13.7 points allowed per game. Iowa has allowed four touchdown passes while grabbing 10 interceptions on the season. They'll hang around and make the Trojans miserable, if not outright pick up the upset.

Duke (-5.5 vs. Virginia)

This feels like a game where the wrong team might be favored. Yes, Chandler Morris is questionable, but the Virginia quarterback might well find a way to stick it out and lead his 8-2 team to a win at 5-4 Duke. Duke's last three games are two losses and a one-point win over the worst Clemson team in recent memory.

Wake Forest (-5.5 vs. North Carolina)

The fighting Bill Belichicks just might have a surprise here. UNC has played much better over the last month, with two wins and two losses by a total of four points. Wake has ground out a pair of wins and gotten blasted by Florida State in between. Consistency is the question and whether Wake has any might be the key issue of Satruday's matchup.

Georgia (-6.5 vs. Texas)

Texas QB Arch Manning could lead an epic Week 12 upset. | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

Georgia is coming off its most complete performance in months. But this is a battle of two teams that grind out close games. Georgia has played four one-score games this year while Texas has played five, including each of its last three. Texas has had a week off, but came out hot early and pulled away from Vanderbilt. That could be key against a Georgia team that has struggled with bad starts throughout the season.

Missouri (-6.5 vs. Mississippi State)

Missouri has dropped two in a row and looks decidedly uncertain of itself without Beau Pribula. State, meanwhile, comes off an ugly loss to Georgia, but had played three straight one-score games before that. If the Bulldogs can hang around, their postseason hopes being on the line could provide an extra late blast of incentive.