Josh Pate puts college football powerhouse on upset alert in Week 7

Josh Pate warns Florida State could be vulnerable to an upset against Pittsburgh in Week 7.

Florida State head coach Mike Norvell and the Seminoles were placed on Josh Pate's upset alert entering their Week 7 matchup against Pitt football. / Melina Myers-Imagn Images

The momentum surrounding the Florida State Seminoles has cooled considerably after back-to-back losses, and now college football analyst Josh Pate believes the pressure is mounting. On Thursday’s episode of Josh Pate’s College Football Show, he placed Florida State on high alert ahead of its Week 7 matchup against the Pittsburgh Panthers, calling the game one that “makes him nervous.”

Pate explained his reasoning on his weekly “Upset Alert” segment, where he rates the likelihood of potential surprise results. “Guys, I’m nervous about this game,” Pate said. “So, I’m going to put an 8.5 on the upset alert concern scale. Now, that’s a recalibrated scale after last week because UCLA did a number to the upset alert concern meter.”

Pate’s caution stems from the timing and trajectory of both programs. Florida State enters the matchup 3-2 after a deflating 28-22 loss to Miami, which followed another conference setback the week prior against Virginia. Pittsburgh, also 3-2, has shown signs of renewal since inserting freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel, who threw for 323 yards and four touchdowns in a 48-7 win over Boston College.

Josh Pate Cites Florida State’s Uncertainty and Pitt’s Momentum

Pate’s primary concern centers on Florida State’s instability after its hot start and the reemergence of a dangerous Pittsburgh team under head coach Pat Narduzzi. “This is an inflection point for the season,” Pate said. “Remember, they started hot against Alabama. Well, now they’ve lost two conference games in two consecutive weeks.”

Florida State’s offensive struggles have been a recurring issue. Quarterback Tommy Castellanos has thrown for 1,120 yards with six touchdowns and five interceptions, but his inconsistency and reliance on his legs have made the Seminoles’ attack one-dimensional.

Florida State Seminoles quarterback Tommy Castellanos (1) has seemed to lose some of his early-season momentum. / Alicia Devine/Tallahassee Democrat / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The offense averages 560.8 yards per game, among the nation’s best, yet Pate warned that if Castellanos is forced to throw too often, it could spell trouble. “If he’s having to throw a whole lot, that means things aren’t going well for Florida State,” he said.

Pitt, meanwhile, has surged behind Heintschel’s emergence. The Panthers average 423 yards per game, including a top-15 national passing output of 307 yards per contest. Their defense remains the program’s calling card, allowing just 293.4 yards per game, good for 23rd nationally, and ranking third in the FBS against the run. Pate highlighted that the combination of an improving offense and a physical front as reasons Florida State’s margin for error has narrowed.

Florida State Faces Crucial Turning Point in 2025 Season

Beyond the statistical contrast, Pate’s remarks reflect a broader narrative about Florida State’s direction. After an offseason that began with a win over Alabama and playoff aspirations, the Seminoles’ confidence has waned. Their recent losses, mounting injuries, including the absence of right tackle Micah Pettus, and inconsistent offensive rhythm have led to questions about the team’s resilience.

For Florida State head coach Mike Norvell, Saturday represents a test of leadership as much as execution. The Seminoles’ offense must rediscover balance through running backs Gavin Sawchuk and Ousmane Kromah while finding receiving help for standout tight end Duce Robinson, who leads the team with 433 yards and three touchdowns. Defensively, Florida State’s secondary must rebound after allowing explosive plays against Miami, particularly with Pitt’s pass-heavy approach looming.

Florida State running back Ousmane Kromah (32) is one of seven Seminoles players with at least 95 rushing yards this season. / Robert Myers-Imagn Images

Pate stopped short of predicting an outright upset but made clear his unease. “It’s a new day for Pitt football,” he said. “They’ve benched the quarterback, brought in the backup, and they just rolled Boston College.” His warning underscored that for a struggling Florida State team, even a home game against a three-win opponent could define the remainder of its season.

The Seminoles will host the Pitt Panthers at Doak Campbell Stadium on Saturday at noon ET.

Read more on College Football HQ

feed