Mississippi State vs. LSU Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 7

Two SEC teams looking to stay in the College Football Playoff mix square off at 12 pm. EST on Saturday, as the No. 16 Mississippi State Bulldogs hit the road to play the No. 22 LSU Tigers.

LSU is coming off a tough loss to the Kentucky Wildcats in Week 6, putting Lane Kiffin’s group in a tough spot to make the College Football Playoff with a daunting SEC schedule still ahead. The Tigers still have to play Alabama, Texas and Tennessee in the 2026 campaign after this game.

Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are coming off a bye week, which came at the right time with star quarterback Kamario Taylor banged up. He left the team’s loss to Alabama in Week 5, and there are reports that he’s up in the air for Saturday’s game.

So, the Bulldogs are massive underdogs in this matchup with oddsmakers bracing for the possibility that the Heisman candidate sits out. Freshman Parker Puckett is next in line to start in place of Taylor in Week 7.

Here’s a look at the odds, a player to watch and my prediction as these two teams look to add a top-25 win to their respective resumes in Week 7.

Mississippi State vs. LSU Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Mississippi State +14 (-112)
LSU -14 (-108)

Moneyline

Mississippi State: +400
LSU: -535

Total

58.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Mississippi State vs. LSU How to Watch

Date: Saturday, Oct. 17
Time: 12:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Tiger Stadium (LA)
How to Watch (TV): ESPN, Disney+
Mississippi State record: 4-1
LSU record: 4-2

Mississippi State vs. LSU Key Player to Watch

Kamaro Taylor, Quarterback, Mississippi State

Will the Heisman candidate play in this Week 7 matchup? Taylor injured his right leg/foot in his last game against Alabama, exiting that loss for the Bulldogs.

Mississippi State is coming off a bye in Week 6, which could give Taylor a chance to return to action against LSU.

So far this season, the sophomore has been one of the best quarterbacks in the country, completing 66.2 percent of his passes for 1,450 yards, 17 touchdowns and just four picks in five games. He’s also added 43 carries for 159 yards and a score on the ground.

Taylor has at least three touchdown passes in every game, leading the Bulldogs to the No. 3 offense in adjusted EPA/Play. If he’s able to go on Saturday, Mississippi State is in play to pull off an upset – even against a quality LSU squad.

Mississippi State vs. LSU Prediction and Pick

This bet is contingent on Taylor playing in this game, and the current spread certainly suggests that he’s up in the air. If the star quarterback sits, I don’t mind the UNDER with the Mississippi State offense likely taking a serious step back.

The Bulldogs were blown out by Alabama even with Taylor in the game – but he was attempting to play through this lower leg issue.

Now, they take on an LSU team that has already lost to Ole Miss and Kentucky and may be a long shot to make the College Football Playoff, unless it’s able to run the table the rest of the regular season.

With Clemson and Texas A&M both taking a clear step back this season, LSU doesn’t really have a quality win yet in 2026.

Quarterback Sam Leavitt has already been picked off eight times, and I’m not sure he’ll be able to take advantage of a Mississippi State defense that is just 98th in the country in EPA/Pass. The Bulldogs are 32nd in EPA/Rush, but they’ll have to contain Leavitt as a runner from the quarterback position.

Mississippi State’s offense is a top-10 unit in third/fourth down success rate and EPA/Rush, so it may be able to move the ball even if Taylor is limited in his running ability on Saturday.

The Bulldogs have quality wins over South Carolina and Missouri, and I think they’re being undervalued in this game if the star quarterback plays. I’d wait to wager on this game until his status is certain, but the Bulldogs as two-touchdown underdogs is a pretty interesting price in this SEC clash.

Pick: Mississippi State +14 (-112 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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