Josh Pate Names SEC Powerhouse That Could Win League or Be 'Cooked' By October

The story in Norman could have two very different outcomes for Sooners football this year. Oklahoma enters the 2026 season fresh off its first College Football Playoff appearance under Brent Venables, who signed a two-year contract extension in August that runs through January 2032.

College football analyst Josh Pate broke down the Sooners' schedule and said the slate sets up as one of the toughest in the country, one that could either produce an SEC title run or an early collapse. Pate pointed to a stretch of road games against Michigan, Georgia and Texas as the reason for his split outlook.

Why Josh Pate sees two different outcomes

Oklahoma travels to Michigan in a non-conference matchup in Week 2, then opens SEC play the following month with a trip to Georgia, before facing Texas in the Red River Rivalry on October 10. Pate said that stretch decides the season either way.

"They could win the SEC," Pate said. "They could also be cooked by mid-October because that's the way their schedule is set up, with that trip to Michigan in Week 2 and then a trip to Georgia a couple of weeks later, and then they got the Red River shootout on October 10th."

Pate settled on a 9-3 record for Oklahoma, though he said he considered going higher. "I gave serious consideration to 10 and two," Pate said. "The only thing that backed me off of that is I do believe that the ground game will be much improved. I believe, but I want to verify."

He also noted that the schedule works against Oklahoma early. "Michigan, Georgia, Texas, Florida, Texas A&M," Pate said. "Four of the five games I just listed are away from home. One of them is a neutral site. Three of them are on the road. That's a tough slate, man."

Earlier this month, I highlighted the Sooners as a team seriously at risk of falling out of the AP Top 25 with a poor start.

What John Mateer, Brent Venables have said about the season

Oklahoma Sooners quarterback John Mateer (10) celebrates with head coach Brent Venables after the game against the Michigan Wolverines. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Quarterback John Mateer returned to Oklahoma for a fourth collegiate season after a 2025 campaign that opened with Heisman buzz before a hand injury slowed him down. Mateer said the offense has grown from a year of SEC experience.

"I think we've all developed in the right way," Mateer said. "One year in the SEC, you just learn how important everything is and all the little details. I think that's the biggest change."

Venables praised Mateer's competitiveness after Oklahoma's playoff loss to Alabama last season. "He's a warrior," Venables said. "He's got everything that you want in a competitor, in a leader, in a quarterback."

Oklahoma athletic director Roger Denny pointed to Venables' program-building as the reason for the coach's new deal. "Coach Venables is elite at building culture, not just in the locker room, but throughout the entire program," Denny said. "Our players are drawn to him, they trust him, they believe in him."

The Sooners open the season at home against UTEP on September 5.

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