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Massive Heisman setback for Arch Manning despite Texas' win

Texas won, but Arch Manning's Heisman stock took another hit.
Patrick Previty|
Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning
Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

Texas won, but Arch Manning's Heisman stock took another hit. In a 27-10 victory over UTEP on Saturday, the sophomore went 11 of 25 for 114 yards with one touchdown and one interception, endured a stretch of 10 straight incompletions and was briefly booed. He did rush for two first-half scores, but afterward he was blunt, saying "I've got to play better… I'm just frustrated. I know I'm better than this." Coach Steve Sarkisian said Manning "pressed some" and that the staff still knows "what he's capable of."

Caesars' updated board Saturday night showed a new top tier led by Miami's Carson Beck and Oklahoma's John Mateer, with Oregon's Dante Moore, LSU's Garrett Nussmeier and Georgia's Gunner Stockton close behind. DraftKings had Mateer and Beck shortest entering late Saturday (+800 and +900, respectively), while multiple trackers show Manning sliding well outside the top 10. By Sunday morning, Arch was down to roughly 30-1 at ESPN Bet. It appears pretty clear now after Week 3, Manning is no longer in the race.

Through three games, Manning sits at 579 passing yards with six touchdowns and three interceptions, and has an adjusted QBR of 49.6 (No. 88 nationally). Texas, which entered Week 3 ranked No. 7 in the AP poll, won behind its defense again, holding UTEP to 259 yards. Texas is 2-1 with Sam Houston up next before SEC play.

Several other players produced good performances in Week 3. Beck carved up No. 18 South Florida in a 49-12 win, going 23 of 28 for 340 yards with three touchdown passes and one rushing score as Miami improved to 3-0. Mateer totaled 345 yards and two touchdowns (including a 51-yard scoring run) in No. 13 Oklahoma’s 42-3 road rout of Temple to push the Sooners to 3-0. Both players found themselves at the top of Caesars' odds.

Manning opened the season as a co-favorite for most books, but his odds lengthened after a 14-7 Week 1 loss at Ohio State and slid again following two uneven passing days in the past couple weeks.

Arch Manning
Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

Texas has remained a top-10 team after the loss to Ohio State, but now questions about the QB play are front and center. After Sam Houston (Sept. 20), Texas heads into the SEC grind with Florida (Oct. 4), Oklahoma (Oct. 11), at Kentucky (Oct. 18), at Mississippi State (Oct. 25), Vanderbilt (Nov. 1), at Georgia (Nov. 15), Arkansas (Nov. 22) and Texas A&M (Nov. 28). If Manning plays like he has in the last three weeks, those games will be tough for the Longhorns.

Texas’ defense is doing its job and the offense around Manning has run well enough to beat UTEP and San Jose State. But Heisman markets are signaling that the rushing scores for Manning won’t mask a sub-50 QBR and his generally shaky play. Unless the passing game sharpens soon, the Heisman trophy will keep moving away from Manning.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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Patrick Previty
PATRICK PREVITY

In addition to writing for On SI, Patrick is also a site expert for Canes Warning and has previously written for outlets such as Betsided, Orlando Magic Daily and Southbound and Down. He serves as a sideline reporter for ESPN+, covering UCF athletics and the Big 12 Conference. In 2024, he hosted a live, on-site UCF football pregame show that aired on ESPN+. Patrick has interviewed numerous figures in the college sports world, ranging from players to UCF’s athletic director. Recently, he traveled to Mobile, Ala., to cover the 2025 Reese’s Senior Bowl, where he spoke with multiple NFL Draft prospects. Patrick also hosts coverage of the Orlando Magic for Digest Media on YouTube and has become one of the leading voices on the team in the region. Patrick also helps run the social media department for The Voice of College Football Network, focusing on breaking news and digital storytelling. Patrick previously spent time at CNN in the sports department, where he assisted with CNN’s World Sport show and Bleacher Report updates for morning programming. Hailing from the Tampa Bay Area, Patrick is a lifelong fan of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tampa Bay Rays, Tampa Bay Lightning, Orlando Magic and UCF Knights.

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