Paul Finebaum Names 1-Loss SEC Program Who Won't Make CFP, Citing Brutal Schedule

ESPN analyst Paul Finebaum believes Florida's College Football Playoff hopes ended with a 45-17 loss at No. 25 Missouri on Saturday, one week after the Gators climbed 13 spots into the top 10 of the AP Top 25.

Finebaum made the call during a Sunday segment with ESPN college football reporter Heather Dinich. "Florida now ... is not going to make the playoffs because I don't see how that team, after this woeful performance, can possibly beat Georgia or Texas," Finebaum said.

Why did Finebaum turn on Florida?

Paul Finebaum Names 1-Loss SEC Program Who Won't Make CFP, Citing Brutal Schedule — Florida Gators head coach Jon Sumrall talks with quarterback Aaron Philo (12) against the Mississippi Rebels | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

"Before I get going, I want to hit myself over the head, Heather, for saying last week at this very hour how frighteningly great Florida looked and how they almost looked unbeatable," Finebaum said. "Well, they looked pretty beatable yesterday."

Missouri racked up 560 yards and held Florida to 42 rushing yards. Gators running back Jadan Baugh entered averaging 150 rushing yards per game but finished with 13 yards on 12 carries.

Finebaum tied the result to first-year Florida coach Jon Sumrall's rebuild. "I think what you saw is a new system getting run up against a more established system," Finebaum said. "Even though Eli Drinkwitz has not accomplished that much at Missouri, that was his biggest win and it was a very costly loss for the Gators."

The win was the Missouri coach's first regular-season victory over a top-10 team in 11 tries, and former LSU head coach Brian Kelly picked the upset before kickoff.

Florida Gators remaining 2026 schedule

"This is very damaging long-term for the Gators because they still have to play Georgia and Texas, two games ESPN's Football Power Index projects them to lose," Dinich said.

Florida (4-1, 2-1 SEC) faces Texas (4-0) and Georgia (5-0), the top two teams in last week's AP Top 25, within a three-week stretch:

Oct. 10: vs. South Carolina
Oct. 17: at Texas
Oct. 31: vs. Georgia in Atlanta
Nov. 7: Oklahoma
Nov. 14: at Kentucky
Nov. 21: Vanderbilt
Nov. 27: at Florida State

Can Florida survive a third loss?

"The College Football Playoff selection committee never has a knee-jerk reaction to one game," Dinich said. "For 12 years, we have heard them say it is the whole body of work."

Florida owns a 44-39 win at Auburn and a 52-28 home win over then-No. 4 Ole Miss, and Dinich slotted the Gators ahead of the Rebels in her latest projection because of that head-to-head result. She added that the loss "certainly puts them under a lot of pressure to avoid being a three-loss team."

In separate comments, Finebaum projected the same finish Dinich warned against. "I still think they're probably a 9-3 team, and I say that because they have to deal with Georgia and Texas fairly quickly," Finebaum said.

That record would leave Florida with three losses, and ESPN's latest playoff projection called a three-loss Gators team unlikely to reach the College Football Playoff.

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