Three college football QBs receive first-round projections for 2026 NFL Draft

Coming into the 2025 season, a bevy of talented returning passers were expected to dominate college football. With the regular season complete, it's fair to say that NFL Draft experts are realizing the same thing that many fans did-- those quarterbacks mostly underperformed drastically. In their place, only a trio of QBs were recently tabbed as first-round ready by one writer.

Struggling Returnees

On the list of underperforming veteran passers are names like LSU's Garrett Nussmeier, Penn State's Drew Allar, and Clemson's Cade Klubnik. Preseason Heisman favorite Arch Manning is considered a near-lock to return to school, and fellow standout LaNorris Sellers is weighing over a decision in that area. Only three players have stepped up ahead of the field into likely first-round picks.

Fernando Mendoza, Indiana

Mendoza has wowed college football fans, but has also impressed NFL executives and even casual fans. On Sunday's Browns/Titans battle, Cleveland fans had a "Do It for Mendoza" sign to apparently encourage the inept Browns to tank. The 6'5" passer was something of a late bloomer, but after two years of action at California, transferred to Indiana and has impressed in 2025.

Mendoza has proven accurate, smart, and capable of making virtually any throw in his season at Indiana. He has passed for 2,980 yards and 33 touchdowns already this season and is the favorite both to win the Heisman Trophy and potentially to be the top player chosen in the 2026 NFL Draft.

Dante Moore, Oregon

Moore had struggled at UCLA as a freshman, but after a year of sitting at Oregon, has shown massive skills in 2025. The 6'3" Moore has completed over 72% of his passes, throwing for 2,733 yards and 24 touchdowns in leading Oregon to the College Football Playoff.

Moore has a rocket arm and is likely the best combination of massive upside with relatively finished skills in the Draft. He's got some rough edges to smooth, but has certainly shown himself to be a top collegiate quarterback and a likely high NFL Draft pick.

Ty Simpson, Alabama

The most contentious of the three top passers might be Simpson. He started the season redhot, but has increasingly taken on a game-manager role for the Tide down the season's stretch. In two of Alabama's last three games, he has failed to throw for 150 yards. In two of the three, he also failed to crack 5.4 yards per pass attempt.

Simpson has also thrown four interceptions in Alabama's 2-2 run over the last four games (after throwing just one in the first nine games total). He's got a big arm and started out the year brilliantly, but some fatigue seems evident and could raise questions about his ability to hold up in the longer NFL season.