2026 NFL Draft QB Tiers: Evaluating the Top 15 At Season’s End

Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, Oregon’s Dante Moore and Alabama’s Ty Simpson are the only quarterbacks deserving of first-round consideration.

Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza led the Hoosiers to their first Big Ten championship in 58 years in 2025, defeating Ohio State for their first conference title since 1967, which was also the year before their last Rose Bowl appearance. / Aaron Doster-Imagn Images

At the end of each college football season, there’s a natural tendency to look at quarterbacks for the future. There’s no better quarterback draft class, one may say, than the one looming the following year.

That ideology backfired in 2025.

LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier and Penn State’s Drew Allar paired injuries with a lack of production. Clemson’s Cade Klubnik didn’t provide many high-end flashes. LaNorris Sellers spent much of 2025 running for his life behind South Carolina’s offensive line.

The list of quarterback regressions—and reasons behind them—goes on and on and on.

Of Sports Illustrated’s top 10 quarterbacks from summer scouting, Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza is the only member cemented as a first-round pick. Oregon’s Dante Moore and Alabama’s Ty Simpson have played their way into the opening round as first-year starters.

There’s still plenty more evaluating to do, be it bowl games, the College Football Playoff and important meetings between teams and prospects during the predraft process.

But with the regular season and conference championship week in the rearview mirror, here’s how Sports Illustrated categorizes the 2026 NFL draft’s quarterback class.

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QB1 CONTENDERS

Fernando Mendoza, Indiana

Mendoza is the odds-on favorite for the Heisman Trophy after leading the FBS with 33 touchdown passes, and he enters the College Football Playoff as the top candidate to be the first quarterback taken in the draft. The 6' 5", 225-pound Mendoza blends size with quality arm strength and enough athleticism to extend plays and pick up yards as a runner. As a high school recruit, Mendoza had an offer from Yale, and his intelligence translates to the field. He’s a tremendous processor who understands spacing, timing, rhythm and leverage, and he clicks through reads at a strong pace. Mendoza is accurate and potent at layering passes, and he can stretch defenses on vertical shots or throws to the far hash. He’s the most well-rounded passer in the class.

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Dante Moore, Oregon

After a rocky midseason stretch marked by subpar performances against Indiana, Wisconsin and Iowa forced some to reconsider whether Moore would even enter the 2026 draft, the redshirt sophomore enjoyed a strong finish to the regular season. Moore is a natural passer who has impressed evaluators with his poise and resiliency in big moments and harsh environments. He has quality tools, from his pocket mobility and arm strength to his touch and accuracy. Moore may have the most raw talent among this year’s quarterbacks, and a team may take a swing on him before Mendoza as a result.

LIKELY FIRST-ROUND PICK

Ty Simpson, Alabama

Simpson has played his way out of the QB1 race, but not enough to remove himself from the first round entirely. He, along with the rest of Alabama’s offense, has struggled with turnovers and general efficiency. Simpson threw only one interception in the first nine games of the season, but he tossed four in the final four contests. The 6' 2", 208-pound Simpson had lapses in accuracy under pressure against Georgia, and he’s had three of his four lowest-yardage games of the season over the past three weeks. Still, Simpson’s collective body of work warrants first-round consideration. He’s shown complete command of Alabama’s system, the accuracy, arm strength and fearlessness to thread tight windows and the poise to do so in pressurized situations. Simpson, a first-year starter, has several “wow” throws each game, but he’s been less consistent of late. A deep College Football Playoff run may put him back in the QB1 mix.

FALLERS WITH DECISIONS TO MAKE

LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina

Sellers may face the most interesting decision of any player in the 2026 draft class: stay, transfer or enter the draft. At 6' 3" and 240 pounds, he has a rocket for a right arm, the speed and athleticism to hit explosive plays as a runner, and his physical tools are undeniable. But so were his struggles this season. Sellers, a redshirt sophomore who will be only 20 years old on the first day of the draft, April 23, threw 13 touchdowns to eight interceptions while taking 42 sacks, the second-most in the FBS. Sellers struggled within structure in the pocket, and South Carolina’s offensive line struggles led to Sellers hastening his internal clock and abandoning pockets prematurely. Still, his off-script playmaking skills were on full display. He’s supremely talented, but likely wouldn’t see the field in 2026 if he were to enter the draft.

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Sooners quarterback John Mateer could opt to return to school. / Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

John Mateer, Oklahoma

Mateer enjoyed a strong September, eclipsing 270 passing yards in each of Oklahoma’s first four games and showing an aggressive, gunslinger mentality with the precision to hit explosive plays in narrow windows. But he’s struggled mainly since returning from surgery to repair a broken bone in the thumb on his throwing hand. He has more games below 175 passing yards (four) than above 200 (three), and he’s had a pair of three-interception performances. But Oklahoma has won games and earned its spot in the CFP, and Mateer has a chance to right the wrongs of a once promising season. If the redshirt junior were to enter the draft, he’d get Day 2 consideration due to his moxie, playmaking and arm talent. However, he’s been too erratic and he may ultimately opt to return to Norman for his senior season.

POTENTIAL DAY 2 PICKS

Carson Beck, Miami

Beck still has the talent and flashes of a first-round pick, but he’s yet to prove he can stay efficient and productive when the pocket becomes congested. The 6' 4", 225-pound Beck emerged as a strong leader at Miami, and he’s impressed with his accuracy and efficiency when operating on script this season. His highs have been promising, but his lows still warrant anything above a mid-to-late Day 2 pick.

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Drew Allar, Penn State

Allar’s senior season didn’t go according to plan. Allar, who stands 6' 5" and 235 pounds, entered 2025 as a potential top-10 pick due to his size, high-level velocity and athleticism. He showed encouraging flashes in 2024 while guiding Penn State to the College Football Playoff semifinals. Still, his production dropped, and his accuracy remained too inconsistent this season before he sustained a season-ending ankle injury in early October. He still has the same tools, but the high-upside passer this fall created more doubt about whether he’ll ever hit his ceiling.

STAY IN SCHOOL OR GO PRO

Brendan Sorsby, Cincinnati

Sorsby is an unheralded wild card in a quarterback class lacking glamour at the top. He has Day 2 talent and routinely makes eye-catching throws due to a right arm so strong that he can afford to take risks others can’t. Sorsby is 6' 3" and 235 pounds, but he’s a bit unpredictable and threw four interceptions in a season-changing three-game stretch to begin November. If he stays at Cincinnati or elsewhere, he’ll likely receive first-round buzz next summer, but he’d give evaluators something to think about if he enters this year.

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Jayden Maiava, USC

Overlooked despite a strong redshirt junior season in which he led the Big Ten in passing yards, the 6' 4", 230-pound Maiava is strong-armed, athletic and capable of creating explosive plays. Aided by first-round receiver Makai Lemon and likely Day 2 pick Ja’Kobi Lane, Maiava spearheaded an efficient USC offense that finished 13th in the FBS in scoring. Maiava is a solid deep-ball thrower with the quickness to evade defenders in the pocket, and he has high-level flashes. Another year of productivity and refinement would certainly help his stock.

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TCU quarterback Josh Hoover has tremendous tools, so much so that he could be in the first-round discussion in 2027. / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Josh Hoover, TCU

Hoover finished sixth in the FBS with 3,472 passing yards and 29 touchdowns, a nod to his explosive, productive redshirt junior season. But he also threw 13 interceptions, the third-most in the FBS. At his best, the 6' 2", 200-pound Hoover has the pocket presence, arm talent and field vision to dissect defenses, but he was too volatile this season. Hoover needs to limit his lapses and be smarter with his aggression, but he has tremendous tools, so much so that he could be in the first-round discussion in 2027.

DAY 3 PROSPECTS

Taylen Green, Arkansas

Green will be a tools-based swing for a team this spring. The only question is how early a front office feels comfortable stepping in the batter’s box. At 6' 6" and 224 pounds, Green is a long-striding weapon when he breaks contain, scoring eight rushing touchdowns this season. He has a strong right arm and flashed accuracy this season, but he threw 11 interceptions and played a central role in Arkansas’s fourth-quarter struggles. Green has one of the draft’s best blends of size, arm talent and mobility, but he appears a long way from putting it all together.

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Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss

One of college football’s most unexpected stars this season after transferring from Ferris State, the 6' 0", 200-pound Chambliss has put himself firmly in the mid-Day 3 mix entering the College Football Playoff. Chambliss is athletic and explosive, and Ole Miss calls designed quarterback runs for him. He has the arm talent to stress defenses, though his accuracy and ball placement have been hit-or-miss this fall. He’s worthy of being drafted, and he has a chance to raise his stock in the CFP.

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Garrett Nussmeier, LSU

Nussmeier entered the fall as a legitimate first-round candidate and Sports Illustrated’s No. 1 quarterback, and he ended the regular season on LSU’s bench. Between injuries and coach Brian Kelly’s firing, Nussmeier battled a few things out of his control. But his game lacked the same confident, aggressive, downfield-challenging elements he showed in 2024, and the Tigers were often dull and sluggish under his guidance. Nussmeier, the son of Saints offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier, has enough redeeming traits to receive Day 3 consideration, even though his final season didn’t leave much of an impression.

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Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt

Pavia was perhaps college football’s most entertaining quarterback this season, as much for his on-field explosiveness as his off-field charisma. Though he’s a likely Heisman finalist, Pavia, who will turn 24 in February, doesn’t translate favorably to the NFL. He’s undersized at 6' 0" and 207 pounds, and he doesn’t have high-level arm talent. Pavia is, however, a smart, tough, fearless and efficient passer with the playmaking acumen and intangibles to get next-level looks, be it as a late Day 3 pick or undrafted free agent.

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Cade Klubnik, Clemson

Much like Allar and Nussmeier, Klubnik dropped from projected first-round pick over the summer to potential—but far from guaranteed—Day 3 pick. The 6' 2", 210-pound Klubnik is adequate, albeit unspectacular, in several ways. He has a quality arm and the pocket mobility to extend plays, and he’s an adequate processor who performed average this fall. Klubnik didn’t provide many elite flashes or elevate Clemson’s offense to the level evaluators hoped, and his stock suffered as a result.

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