Todd McShay Makes Opinion Clear in Fernando Mendoza vs. Ty Simpson Debate

The Ringer's NFL draft guru, Todd McShay, has established a clear preference between the two most-discussed quarterbacks in the 2026 NFL Draft class. The veteran analyst currently ranks Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza as the No. 4 overall player on his big board and projects him No. 1 overall pick to the Las Vegas Raiders in McShay’s most recent mock draft.

In contrast, Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson sits at No. 29 on the big board. While Simpson is considered a high-level talent, he did not appear in the first round of McShay’s latest mock draft. This gap in evaluation highlights the different trajectories of two players who entered the draft cycle with varying levels of production.

The discrepancy between the two prospects centers on consistency and starting experience. McShay notes that Mendoza separated himself through his preparation and situational efficiency during his time at both California and Indiana. This ranking suggests a significant shift in how NFL scouts view the hierarchy of the next wave of professional signal-callers.

Fernando Mendoza's NFL draft stock

The rise of Mendoza is tied to his extensive starting experience and his performance in high-pressure situations. McShay describes Mendoza as a "football nerd" who reminds him of Kirk Cousins and Tom Brady because of his obsessive preparation. The analyst believes Mendoza possesses an extraordinarily high floor because of his mental approach to the game.

"I think the floor for him is extraordinarily high because [reminds me of] Tom Brady," McShay said. "There is no question why they are already having Brian Griese work with him, with the connection with Shanahan and Kubiak. That is a done deal." McShay also emphasized Mendoza's performance in the red zone, where he recorded 27 touchdowns and zero interceptions during his time at Cal.

The national outlook for Mendoza shifted after he led the California offense in 2024. While Mendoza was productive at Cal, he was a relative unknown. The 22-year-old took a massive leap after transferring to Indiana for the 2025 season. Despite playing for a 2024 Golden Bears team that McShay notes lacked elite talent around him, Mendoza proved he could consistently navigate tight passing windows before winning the Heisman Trophy and leading Indiana to a national title.

Ty Simpson's draft evaluation

Simpson represents a different challenge for evaluators because he lacks the multi-year starting resume of several of his peers. McShay acknowledged that Simpson looked like the best quarterback in the country through the first nine weeks of the 2025 season. However, his lack of starts over a two-year period remains a primary concern for his draft positioning.

"It is the fact that he did not start for two years that scares me more than anything," McShay stated. He noted that Simpson’s play regressed late in the year as pass protection struggled and the Alabama run game faltered. These factors, combined with a severe case of gastritis, led to a decline in his production and caused his weight to drop to 190 pounds by the Rose Bowl.

Despite the late-season regression, Simpson’s "NFL brain" and pedigree keep him in the draft conversation. Alongside his father, Jason, who has been a college football coach since 1995, Ty grew up around the game and shows an advanced ability to identify coverages and process progressions quickly. While Simpson can no longer improve his college tape, his high-level processing during the early portion of the season remains the primary selling point for NFL front offices.

The 2026 NFL Draft will take place just outside Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh from April 23 to April 25.