Alabama vs. Missouri prediction: Who wins, and why?

Alabama hits the road again in another consequential SEC clash against undefeated Missouri in college football’s Week 7 action on Saturday. Here is what you should watch for, with our updated On SI prediction for the game.

Alabama improved to 4-1 overall and sits at a perfect 2-0 in SEC competition coming off key victories against Georgia and Vanderbilt, both ranked, helping change some of the narrative around Kalen DeBoer after the loss to Florida State in the opener.

DeBoer has excelled against ranked opponents in his tenure, going 17-3 against Top 25 teams and is 13-2 in situations where both teams on the field are ranked, with his .867 win percentage in the latter case the highest of any coach in the AP poll era.

Missouri ranks among the 10 most productive offenses in scoring, averaging more than 45 points per game, and boasts one of college football’s most potent backfields, but it hasn’t faced off against a team of Alabama’s caliber just yet.

Alabama vs. Missouri prediction: What to watch

Alabama vs. Missouri football game prediction 2025 — Denny Medley-Imagn Images

1. On the ground

Games in the SEC are won in the trenches, and Missouri may have a slight advantage against Alabama when it comes to establishing the run.

Ahmad Hardy powers the Mizzou ground attack, rushing for 730 yards with 9 touchdowns through 5 games, rushing for at least 100 yards in 7 straight games, powering the nation’s No. 3 ranked rushing offense with 292 yards per game.

Alabama is not the power offense it was when Nick Saban was around, ranking 105th in rushing and averaging under 4 yards per carry, while defensively it places 89th in FBS by allowing opposing backs to gain nearly 5 yards per touch.

2. In the air

What the Crimson Tide doesn’t quite yet do on the ground, it’s doing with Ty Simpson, the former five-star quarterback prospect who has thus far played up to that billing.

Simpson has just 1 interception on the season while throwing 13 touchdown passes and completing 75 percent of his attempts. Now he lines up against an Missouri pass defense that ranks 10th in FBS in production, but that number could be misleading.

Much of that success might be attributable to Missouri’s front seven rather than its secondary, the former generating consistent pressure against quarterbacks in a disruptive way. But in those moments when passers have time, they have found angles against the Tigers’ secondary.

Missouri allowed 60 combined points in games against Kansas and South Carolina, both moving the ball efficiently through the air when their quarterbacks had room to work, and Simpson commands a group of skill threats that are an order of magnitude faster than those teams can boast.

3. Going deep

Beau Pribula has been a revelation for the Missouri offense, transferring in from Penn State and completing nearly 76 percent of his throws with 9 touchdowns and rushing for 3 additional touchdowns while covering 1,203 yards in the air.

But underneath those raw numbers could be a potential weakness for the Alabama defense to exploit, as the Tigers rank 134th out of 136 FBS teams when testing the deep field throwing the ball, with just 5.9 percent of their throws going 20-plus yards downfield.

Alabama’s secondary has been effective, ranking among the top 10 in opponent completion percentage on 20-plus yard throws (9.4 percent), a key element in holding teams to just 1.43 points per drive, ranking 29th.

Overall, the Crimson Tide boast the fifth-ranked passing defense in college football, holding opponents to 130 yards per game and just 6.3 yards per attempt.

Who is favored?

Alabama is a 3.5 point favorite against Missouri, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook entering this weekend.

FanDuel lists the total at 52.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Alabama at -156 and for Missouri at +132 to win.