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College Football Upset Picks for Week 7 (Will the UCLA Magic Continue?)
Last week was witness to one of the biggest upsets in college football history when winless UCLA took down No. 7 Penn State as 24.5-point underdogs. You'd be hard pressed to find a single person who predicted that upset taking place, but that's what makes this sport so electric.
As we move on to Week 7 of the college football season, it's time to seek out which teams will pull off an upset on this weekend's slate of games. There are three teams I'm locking in on, including the Bruins, to do the unthinkable once again.
CFB Week 7 Upset Picks
- Missouri +135 vs. Alabama (via Caesars)
- UCLA +265 vs. Michigan State (via FanDuel)
- UMass +122 vs. Kent State (via Caesars)
Missouri +135 vs. Alabama
The advanced metrics love this Missouri Tigers team. They enter Week 7 ranking fourth in the country in adjusted EPA per play behind only USC, Oregon, and Ohio State. They also have a Net Success Rate of +19.9% and a Net Yards per Play of +2.27. Alabama ranks below them in all key advanced metrics, including having a Net Yards per Play of just +1.31 with a Net Success Rate of +8%. I'm going to trust the advanced metrics in this one and take Missouri.
UCLA +265 vs. Michigan State
UCLA's upset win against Penn State last week may not have been a complete fluke. Jerry Neuheisel stepped in as the interim offensive coordinator and breathed life into the Bruins' offense, leading to his players eventually carrying him off the field after the win. UCLA put up a whopping 446 total yards against the Nittany Lions, and now they get to take on a far worse team in Michigan State. The Spartans rank just 77th in adjusted EPA per play. If UCLA was truly just a good offensive coordinator away from being a competent football team, then this +265 bet is going to look fantastic come Saturday.
UMass +122 vs. Kent State
In a game between arguably the two worst teams that college football has to offer, I'm going to back the side that's not only getting points but also has the stylistic advantage as well. UMass throws the ball on 61.32% of its plays, the seventh-highest rate in the country. Now, they get to take on a Kent State team that's 112th in opponent dropback EPA while allowing 7.87 yards per dropback. I wouldn't be surprised if the Minutemen win this game outright.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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-eb6ee9a9f2179a90cbfe0d8c654d1a62.jpg "Iain MacMillan")
Originally from Nova Scotia, Iain MacMillan is a senior editor covering betting, with a focus on NFL, NHL, and golf. He hosts the Bacon Bets Podcast and has been featured on VSIN, BetQL and Monumental Sports Network. He is a member of the Metropolitan Golf Writers Association and his beloved Falcons and Maple Leafs break his heart on a yearly basis.