Alabama vs. Oklahoma prediction: Who wins, and why?

College Football Playoff implications abound as No. 4 Alabama welcomes No. 11 Oklahoma in one of four ranked matchups on Saturday and one loaded with postseason consequences.

Alabama is on an eight-game win streak since the opener and has defeated four ranked opponents, seemingly on course to contend for the SEC championship in a couple weeks.

Oklahoma was apparently out of contention before a huge upset win at Tennessee, but remains in the thick of a brutal late-season schedule and at 7-2, a loss here would likely end its playoff hopes.

Oklahoma ended such ambitions for Alabama last season, upsetting the Crimson Tide in a stunning 24-3 result in Norman, but this time the Sooners face a must-win scenario on the road.

Alabama vs. Oklahoma: What to watch for

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Oklahoma Sooners football game prediction 2025 — Alabama vs. Oklahoma prediction 2025 | Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

1. Defensive Strength and Red Zone Efficiency

Both Alabama and Oklahoma play some elite defense. Oklahoma is eighth nationally in scoring defense and fourth against the run, and Alabama is 13th in scoring and top ten against the pass.

The outcome will hinge on which team can hold firm in the red zone and force field goals instead of touchdowns in a game expected to be low-scoring and physical.

Alabama has an edge when its defense gets inside the 20, allowing points on 70 percent of chances, ranking eighth in FBS.

Oklahoma allows points on 84 percent of drives in the red area, but just 8 of them are touchdowns.

2. QB Battle

Alabama’s Ty Simpson is surging as a Heisman contender with 21 touchdown passes and just one interception, fueling Alabama’s undefeated SEC run.

Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer is more error-prone (eight TDs, seven INTs), so minimizing turnovers and capitalizing on scoring opportunities will be decisive, especially against aggressive defenses.

3. Run Game Production

Oklahoma’s run defense is among the best nationally, but their offense ranks outside the top 90 for rushing yards per game, while Alabama’s own run game has underperformed, a shocking 119th nationally.

Whichever team can create a breakthrough in the running game will take pressure off their quarterbacks and set up favorable third-down situations, making run game production a major key to victory.

What the bettors are saying

As expected, the betting markets are still siding with the Crimson Tide over the Sooners, but not by as much as a touchdown in this case.

Alabama is a 5.5 point favorite against Oklahoma, according to the updates game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 45.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Alabama at -220 and for Oklahoma at +184 to win outright.

Alabama vs. Oklahoma prediction: Who wins?

Oklahoma plays some of the most suffocating defense in college football around the line of scrimmage, but even this unit has struggled at times against longer passing plays.

That happens to be the offensive strength for this Alabama team with Simpson dealing to star receivers who can stretch the field.

College Football HQ picks...

Alabama wins 27-20
Covers the spread
And hits the over

More: Alabama vs. Oklahoma score prediction by expert model

How to watch Oklahoma vs. Alabama

When: Sat., Nov. 15
Where: Alabama

Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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