Alabama vs. Tennessee prediction: Who wins, and why?

One of the five games featuring head-to-head matchups involving ranked teams this weekend brings us the Third Saturday in October rivalry, as No. 6 Alabama plays host to No. 11 Tennessee in college football’s Week 8 action.

Alabama won 15 straight games in the series from 2007 to 2021, but Tennessee has taken two of the last three, including last season’s 24-17 victory in Knoxville.

Ever since the season-opening loss at Florida State, the Crimson Tide has been on a roll, winning five straight games, including three in a row against ranked SEC competition, and two of those were on the road, with one against reigning conference champion Georgia.

Crucial to that success has been Ty Simpson, the former five-star quarterback prospect who waited his turn to take over as the starter and so far has looked the part, covering over 1,600 yards in the air with 16 touchdowns and just one turnover.

Joey Aguilar has served an equally-productive input for Tennessee’s offense, as the transfer quarterback who came in to replace Nico Iamaleava leads college football’s second-ranked scoring attack and its 7th-best passing offense.

But where the Tide succeeded, the Vols failed, taking a big early lead against Georgia at home, but couldn’t do enough in an eventual three-point loss a couple weeks ago, putting more pressure on Big Orange to avoid what would be a second loss in SEC competition.

What can we expect as the Crimson Tide welcomes the Volunteers in this classic rivalry?

Alabama vs. Tennessee prediction: What to watch

Alabama vs. Tennessee football game prediction 2025 — Alan Poizner-Imagn Images

1. Lopsided Vols

Tennessee’s offense and its defense are polar opposites of one another. The first is the most productive in the SEC, while the second is just about the worst.

The Volunteers lead the SEC in total points per game scored, averaging more than 48 points each time out through six games, while their defense allows 29.3 points per game, ranking the worst in the conference.

By comparison, Alabama is sixth in the SEC offensively by scoring nearly five touchdowns per game on average, and ranks 7th among 16 teams in surrendering 17.3 points per game.

2. On the ground

Alabama has played some inspired offense during its five-game win streak, but it’s mostly been through the air as this rushing attack has still so far failed to gel.

The backfield ranks 102nd nationally in total output with 126 yards per game and only 6 touchdowns, but might find an advantage lining up against Tennessee’s rush defense.

Alabama ranks just 97th in the country with a 42.9 percent success rate on offense running the ball, but the Vols are worst in the efficiency department against the run, permitting successful carries on 47.9 percent of attempts, ranking 121st in FBS.

3. Turnover margins

Even if Tennessee’s defense has proven a liability when it comes to allowing opponents to score points, the unit has fared very well both in pressuring quarterbacks and in forcing takeaways.

Last week against Arkansas, the Vols forced three big fumbles and recovered all of them while also recording five sacks in a narrow victory.

Tennessee’s pass rush should be a pivotal factor in this game going against a Crimson Tide offensive line that has given up four sacks in each of its last two outings.

Who is favored?

The betting market has kept the Crimson Tide listed as a convincing favorite against the Volunteers since the open, and very nearly by double digits.

Alabama is a 9.5 point favorite against Tennessee, according to the updates game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook entering this rivalry matchup.

FanDuel lists the total at 59.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Alabama at -335 and for Tennessee at +270 to win outright.

Alabama vs. Tennessee prediction: Who wins?

Alabama is 15th in the country in passing output going against a Tennessee secondary that is 123rd among 136 FBS teams against the pass. Bama is 18th in explosive passes while the Vols are 116th nationally, allowing 32 aerial plays of 20-plus yards.

Tennessee’s ace in the hole could be its rushing attack, a unit that ranks top 25 nationally, going against an Alabama defense that is just 90th against the run, but perhaps more revealing it just 116th in explosive runs allowed.

Alabama has not run the ball well enough to show up in the statistical averages, but it has continued to show an interest in trying, and can do so because the mere presence of Jam Miller is enough to warrant defenses paying attention to him, which in turn allows Simpson and the Tide’s receivers more room to create plays downfield.

If the Vols’ defense takes a gamble on not focusing too heavily on the run out of the belief that Alabama’s ground game isn’t worth the trouble, then it could commit more defenders to drop into coverage and clog those deeper throwing lanes in an effort to slow this offense, especially on the back of a strong pass rush, and keep things close.

College Football HQ picks...

Alabama wins 36-26
Covers the spread
And hits the over

More: Alabama vs. Tennessee score prediction by expert model

How to watch Tennessee vs. Alabama

When: Sat., Oct. 18
Where: Alabama

Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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