Army vs. Navy 2025 score prediction by expert football model

The greatest rivalry moment in college football is set to kick off this weekend as the annual Army-Navy Game gets underway from Baltimore for the first time in nearly a decade.

The winner of this matchup will take home the Commander-in-Chief Trophy after both teams won against Air Force this season.

Army comes in at 6-5 overall with a 4-4 mark in the American Conference, tied for sixth in the league, while Navy is 9-2 on the year with a 7-1 league record, tied for first in the conference.

Navy leads the all-time series against Army by a 63-55-7 count over the years, and is coming off a 31-13 victory against the Black Knights last season, while Army has won 6 of the last 9 overall.

What can we expect as the Midshipmen and Black Knights renew their rivalry this weekend?

For that, we turn to the SP+ college football prediction model to get a preview of how Army and Navy compare, and use it to lock in our own projection.

Army vs. Navy score prediction

The model is siding with the Midshipmen once again this season to make it two-straight.

SP+ predicts that Navy will defeat Army by a projected score of 31 to 25 and will win the game by an expected margin of 6.0 points in the process.

The model gives the Midshipmen a 65 percent chance to defeat the Black Knights outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 391-370 against the spread with a 51.4 win percentage. Last week, it was 4-5 (44.4%) in its picks against the spread.

Who is favored?

The betting markets are in favor of the Midshipmen over the Black Knights by roughly a touchdown.

Navy is a 6.5 point favorite against Army, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook entering this weekend.

FanDuel lists the total at 38.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Navy at -240 and for Army at +198 to win outright.

What we think will happen

Navy took out Army by double digits a year ago, but this rivalry game is always a little unpredictable.

That is, except when it comes to one trend. The winner of this matchup is 9-0-1 against the spread in the last decade, and the Midshipmen are fairly convincing favorites over the Black Knights.

Navy presents the top-ranked rushing attack in college football, stacking up more than 298 yards per game, and although Army is not far behind at No. 3 in FBS, the Middies have an edge in the air.

College Football HQ predicts: Navy defeats Army, and covers the spread.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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