BYU vs. Texas Tech football prediction: Where the experts see an edge

An expert prediction for BYU vs. Texas Tech from a proven analytical model that simulates games and picks winners.

BYU vs. Texas Tech prediction 2025 | Rob Gray-Imagn Images

What should be a hugely consequential game in the Big 12 kicks off this weekend, as No. 7 BYU takes its undefeated record on the road against one-loss, No. 8 Texas Tech on Saturday.

BYU sits atop the Big 12 standings as the last perfect team in the conference, but will be tested against the team right behind it in the 8-1 Red Raiders, with the winner emerging as a solid favorite to play for the conference championship and contend for the College Football Playoff.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

BYU vs. Texas Tech prediction

The model is siding with the home team in this critical Big 12 matchup, but by a very narrow margin.

Texas Tech is the close favorite in the matchup, coming out ahead in 60.8 percent of the computer simulations of the game.

That leaves BYU as the presumptive winner in the remaining 39.2 percent of sims.

How does that translate to an expected margin of victory in the game?

Texas Tech is projected to be 2.7 points better than BYU on the same field, according to the 20,000 projections simulated by the model.

That would not be enough to cover the spread, as Texas Tech is a big 10.5 point favorite against BYU, according to the latest game lines set by FanDuel Sportsbook.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 74 percent of all games and hit 47.2 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.