David Pollack Picks Winner of Ohio State-Iowa

The biggest game of the week in the Big Ten is No. 14-ranked Iowa hosting No. 5 Ohio State in Iowa City on Saturday.

The Hawkeyes are traditionally tough to beat at home in Kinnick Stadium, but the Buckeyes are 17-3 all-time in the series and 6-1 vs. Iowa over the last 20 years with the lone loss in that span coming in Iowa City in 2017.

Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS with Ohio State (3-1, 1-0 Big Ten) set as a 14-point road favorite over Iowa (4-0, 1-0), per DraftKings Sportsbook.

College football analyst David Pollack broke down the matchup on his "See Ball Get Ball" podcast.

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"I think [Iowa] has a chance because Ohio State's defense is more gettable than they've been, but to me that means Iowa has to have some passing game, a little bit of balance, run it more than they've run it, have success and defensively hold the heck on. Like just hold on, don't give up big plays, make them get in the red zone and kick 3s," Pollack said.

David Pollack Makes His Pick for Ohio State-Iowa

In dissecting the matchup, Pollack focused on two key components.

First, he hasn't been impressed by Ohio State's defense, which lost most of its starters from last season, including three of the top 11 picks in the NFL draft. But Pollack also doesn't know how much he trusts Iowa's offense and quarterback Hank Brown to take advantage of that.

"I watched every snap of Ohio State vs. Illinois. I thought [the Buckeyes'] defense, I think they've got some guys who flash occasionally, but they gave up over 6 yards a carry to Illinois. To give up almost 200 yards rushing, this is what Iowa is, this is who they want to be -- they want to run the football," Pollack said. "... Hank Brown, he needs to make a few plays down the field. They need to be able to open it up a little bit because I know they're going to run it, and I think they can run it at a decent clip."

Iowa ranks 27th nationally in rushing at 215.5 yards per game, led by Kamari Moulton (284 yards and 2 TDs on 7.3 yards per carry) with a few other running backs all contributing in significant ways. But the Hawkeyes rank just 87th in passing at 213.5 YPG while Brown has thrown for 700 yards, 5 TDs and 0 INTs.

Iowa's strength, as always, is its defense, which has given up the fewest points in college football (8.0 per game) while ranking 10th at the FBS level overall (239.8 YPG). The Hawkeyes haven't yet played an offense like Ohio State's, however, shutting out Northern Illinois and Northern Iowa while containing limited offenses from Iowa State and Michigan.

The Buckeyes are led by two Heisman Trophy candidates in 2025 finalist Julian Sayin (1,206 passing yards, 12 TDs and 1 INT) and star wideout Jeremiah Smith (33 catches for an FBS-leading 617 yards and 7 TDs).

In Ohio State's Big Ten opener vs. Illinois last week, a 42-19 win, Smith had 12 catches for 217 yards and 4 TDs.

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But Pollack wonders if the Buckeyes' lacking rushing attack (156.75 YPG, 76th nationally) is their vulnerability in a matchup like this.

"With Ohio State on the other side, man, is it anybody besides Jeremiah Smith? And here's the thing with Ohio State, can they get that run game going? ... At some point in this season they're going to need to get first downs and punch it in the red zone," Pollack said.

As for his ultimate prediction for the matchup, Pollack is taking the Buckeyes and sticking close to the spread set by the oddsmakers.

"I think this is a phenomenal matchup. I think Iowa is going to keep it close," he said. "If you weren't watching last week, Illinois kept it close. Illinois was very much in the game until the very last little bit, but they were still very much in striking distance. I think this is 27-13 type of a deal.

"I don't think Iowa's offense is good enough. ... It's all about the offense because I think they can hang on long enough, make them kick a few field goals to stay in the game, but the [arrow points toward] Jeremiah Smith and Julian Sayin."

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