ESPN's Greg McElroy Names His Oregon vs. USC Pick in High-Stakes Week 4 Game

ESPN analyst Greg McElroy is picking No. 12 USC to hand No. 20 Oregon its second loss Saturday at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, a result that would put the Ducks' College Football Playoff hopes in danger.

On his Always College Football podcast, McElroy predicted a 34-31 Trojans win in the 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff on NBC. "We do not see Oregon keeping this offense under 28 in the Coliseum," McElroy said.

USC is 4-0 after a 42-35 win at Rutgers in its Big Ten opener. Oregon is 2-1 after a 39-31 loss at Oklahoma State, which had lost 21 straight games against FBS teams. The Ducks beat the Trojans 42-27 last November in Eugene.

USC's offense keeps Maiava clean

ESPN's Greg McElroy Names His Oregon vs. USC Pick in High-Stakes Week 4 Game — IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

USC quarterback Jayden Maiava leads the country with 1,173 passing yards and has 12 touchdowns against one interception. He threw for 277 yards and two touchdowns at Rutgers, and running back King Miller added 102 rushing yards.

McElroy pointed to the protection in front of the redshirt senior. "He plays behind a line that's allowed just two sacks in four games," McElroy said.

Oregon quarterback Dante Moore hasn't had the same cover. "Oregon has been sacked seven times in the first three games. That's the difference between these two quarterbacks right now," McElroy said.

Moore went 14 of 29 for 191 yards in Stillwater. Then he bounced back with 280 yards and four touchdowns on 19 of 23 passing in an 84-0 win over Portland State.

USC also wins on the money down. "They are great on third down. They are 30 of 48," McElroy said.

What must Oregon's defense do?

Oregon outside linebacker Teitum Tuioti — USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

McElroy built his pick around two streaks tied to Oregon head coach Dan Lanning. "He is 43-0 when his defense allows fewer than 28 points," McElroy said. "USC has not scored fewer than 39 in any game this year."

The second streak depends on the pass rush. "Lanning is 19-0 when his defense records three or more sacks," McElroy said. "Oregon has just four sacks this year."

The Ducks gave up 554 yards at Oklahoma State. Still, USC's defense has its own problems after Rutgers piled up 460 yards and 35 points last week.

Turnovers could decide it, because Oregon has seven takeaways and USC has five giveaways. "In a game that's this close on paper, a single short field could determine the outcome," McElroy said.

Injuries thin both receiver rooms

USC freshman wide receiver Trent Mosley missed the Rutgers game with a knee injury and isn't expected to play Saturday. The first-year pass catcher had 13 catches for 255 yards and four touchdowns in his first three games.

Wide receiver Kayden Dixon-Wyatt now leads the Trojans with 258 receiving yards.

Oregon will be without wide receiver Jeremiah McClellan, and tight end Jamari Johnson's status is unclear after he missed two straight games. "If McClellan's down, then it could be Messiah Hampton, who caught two touchdowns against Portland State," McElroy said.

McElroy still sided with the home team. "USC has the better protection. They have the better third-down offense. They have the home crowd," McElroy said. His 34-31 pick would move USC head coach Lincoln Riley's team to 5-0 and drop Oregon to 0-1 in Big Ten play.

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