Florida State vs. Virginia score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Florida State vs. Virginia in this Week 5 college football game from an expert model that projects scores.

Florida State vs. Virginia score prediction 2025 | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

No. 8 Florida State hits the road for the first time this season in its ACC opener against Virginia as college football’s Week 5 action gets an early start on Friday. Here is the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that projects scores.

Undefeated through three games, the Seminoles are riding high off that season-opening upset against Alabama and catapulted into the No. 8 position in the latest AP top 25 rankings as they venture into their conference debut and first road game of the year.

Tommy Castellanos has supercharged this offense, as the dual threat quarterback leads an attack that ranks No. 1 in the country by averaging 58 points per game, and is second in FBS in rushing output, covering 363 yards on the ground each time out, and is 1 of 3 teams that average more than 7 yards per carry.

Virginia is no slouch this time around. Head coach Tony Elliott may be 10 games under .500 in his tenure there, but this team is 3-1 and quarterback Chandler Morris is among the ACC’s most productive, throwing 8 touchdown passes and covering 1,050 yards in the air so far.

What do the analytics suggest for when the Cavaliers welcome the Seminoles in this ACC clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Virginia and Florida State compare in this Week 5 college football game.

Florida State vs. Virginia score prediction

As might be expected, the Seminoles have emerged as the favorite over the Cavs in this matchup, but the game could be closer than most would think.

SP+ predicts that Florida State will defeat Virginia outright by a projected score of 28 to 25 and will win the game by an expected margin of 2.9 points in the process.

The model gives the Seminoles a narrow 57 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 94-101 against the spread with a 48.2 win percentage.

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How to pick the game

Florida State is a 6.5 point favorite against Virginia, according to the latest updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 60.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Florida State at -240 and for Virginia at +195 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take...

• Virginia +6.5
• Seminoles to win -240
• Bet under 60.5 points

Most bettors expect the Seminoles will take care of business against the Cavaliers based on their early domination up to now.

Florida State is getting 68 percent of bets to win the game by at least a touchdown and cover the spread to stay undefeated on the road.

The other 32 percent of wagers project Virginia will either defeat the Seminoles outright in a huge upset, or will keep the final margin under a touchdown in a loss.

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Computer prediction

Most other analytical football models are taking the Seminoles over the Cavaliers.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Florida State is the expected favorite in the matchup, coming out ahead in the majority 60.3 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

That leaves Virginia as the presumptive winner in the remaining 39.7 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? This one could be closer than most Noles fans would prefer.

Florida State is projected to be just 2.5 points better than Virginia on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s 20,000 simulations.

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 72.3 percent of all games and hit 52.3 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

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How to watch Florida State vs. Virginia

When: Fri., Sept. 26
Where: Virginia

Time: 7 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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