Florida vs. Tennessee prediction: Who wins, and why?

Tennessee has almost certainly played itself out of the College Football Playoff conversation, but it can still put itself into a decent bowl and end its season on a high note with a win here, combined with another against insurgent rival Vanderbilt.

Florida has no ability to get to a bowl at just 3-7, but can hand two of its rivals an ugly late-season loss with a good showing against the Vols this week and then against Florida State in the finale.

Tennessee vs. Florida: What to watch

Tennessee Volunteers vs. Florida Gators football game prediction — Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

1. Tennessee’s Offensive Explosiveness

Tennessee enters the matchup with the No. 2 offense in the country, led by quarterback Joey Aguilar and a host of playmakers at the skill positions.

The Volunteers average 43.4 points per game and almost 500 total yards, frequently hitting explosive plays in the passing game and mixing in a solid running attack.

For Florida to have a chance, its defense must contain Tennessee’s high-powered offense and disrupt Aguilar’s rhythm early.

2. Florida’s Run Defense and Second-Half Play

A key storyline is Florida’s struggle against the run, giving up 470 rushing yards in its last two games, and its inability to play a full 60 minutes, particularly on offense.

Tennessee uses their run game to set up play action, and Florida’s defense must get set quickly against the Vols’ up-tempo approach.

The Gators also need to improve offensively in the second half, as scoring droughts and stalled drives have cost them winnable games.

3. Turnover Margin

Both teams have had turnover issues, but it has been particularly damaging for Florida, ranking near the bottom nationally in giveaways.

Tennessee is opportunistic, forcing 19 turnovers this season, and the Volunteers thrive when winning the turnover battle.

Key takeaways or lost possessions could swing momentum and prove decisive in a game that is expected to be close, with simulations and expert picks predicting a one-score outcome.

What the bookies think

Bettors predictably are siding with the Vols, but expect a much closer game.

Tennessee is a 3.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the updates game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 57.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Tennessee at -178 and for Florida at +150 to win outright.

Florida vs. Tennessee prediction: Who wins?

Florida Gators vs. Tennessee Volunteers football game prediction — Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK

Tennessee has not won a game at Florida since 2003, a streak of 10 straight losses, but if there is a year where the Gators can get got in the Swamp, this is it. Just ask USF.

Joey Aguilar leads a Vols offense that is among the most explosive and consistent in college football, but it has one major weakness, turning the ball over at the worst times. Still, the Gators are worse in that department, averaging 90th in FBS in turnover margin.

Florida has bodies on defense that can make this interesting. Consider close results against Georgia and Ole Miss, and a win against a then top-ten Texas at home.

And with nothing to lose, they could make this very close, especially against a Tennessee pass defense that is just 118th in the country.

College Football HQ picks...

Tennessee wins 27-24
Doesn't cover the spread
And hits the under

How to watch Tennessee vs. Florida

When: Sat., Nov. 22
Where: Florida

Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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