Georgia vs. Texas prediction: Who wins, and why?

For the first time since the SEC Championship Game last season, Georgia and Texas will be on the same field, and with almost as much implication for their playoff hopes as in that game.

Georgia appears to be a sure thing for the College Football Playoff win or lose this weekend as the current projected No. 5 seed and well inside the CFP bubble.

But Texas is in a more fragile position when it comes to its postseason ambitions. Inside the field as the No. 10 seed coming into this game, the Longhorns have two losses and a third could put them out.

What can we expect as the Bulldogs and Longhorns face off in this SEC clash? Here is what you should watch for, with our prediction for the game as Georgia and Texas meet in primetime.

Georgia vs. Texas: What to watch for

Georgia vs. Texas football game prediction 2025 — Georgia vs. Texas prediction 2025 | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

1. QB Battle and Offensive Explosiveness

Texas quarterback Arch Manning returned last time out with a strong performance, throwing for over 300 yards and three touchdowns, while Georgia's Gunnar Stockton delivered solid numbers with three touchdown passes of his own.

Both teams can strike quickly, but Georgia's offense has been more consistent and boasts a deeper run game, making the quarterback duel pivotal in creating explosive plays, especially if either defense forces a shootout scenario.

2. On the Ground

Georgia enters the contest with one of the nation’s top rushing attacks, posting over 300 yards in their previous outing while averaging almost 5 yards per carry, and is ranked 17th nationally against the run on defense.

Texas just 94th in rushing offense with 135 yards per game,but is second nationally in run defense, so which team generates more rushing success—and contains the opponent's running backs—will be a defining matchup for field position and red zone opportunities.

3. Turnover Margin

Texas ranks among the nation’s best in turnover margin (top 10), while Georgia has been solid (top 25), but less opportunistic at forcing turnovers.

Protecting the football is especially critical in a game with playoff implications and limited scoring chances. A single turnover could swing the outcome, particularly with defensive units capable of forcing mistakes.

What the bettors are saying

The betting market is siding with the home team in this SEC clash by about a touchdown.

Georgia is a 6.5 point favorite against Texas, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 49.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Georgia at -225 and for Texas at +190 to win outright.

Georgia vs. Texas prediction: Who wins?

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Texas Longhorns football game prediction 2025 — Georgia vs. Texas prediction 2025 | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Much has been made of the apparent improvement that Arch Manning has enjoyed in recent outings, but a lot of that production has come from his receivers working after the catch, an exploit that may not work as well against a group of superb Georgia perimeter defenders.

Georgia has also found a real rhythm on the offensive side of the ball in recent weeks, a combination of efficient quarterback play and an improved ground attack.

Texas will get some angles in the air early on, but the Bulldog tacklers will settle in and go to work stopping the Longhorns’ run game and force Manning to win the game himself, something he’s not yet in a position to do.

College Football HQ picks...

Georgia wins 34-23
Covers the spread
And hits the over

More: Georgia vs. Texas score prediction by expert model

How to watch Texas vs. Georgia

When: Sat., Nov. 15
Where: Georgia

Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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