Georgia vs. Texas score prediction by expert football model

Georgia and Texas come into this weekend among the top-ten ranked teams in the College Football Playoff poll, each angling for attention in the SEC title race after playing each other for it last year.

Georgia won that game, in addition to a regular season victory in Austin weeks before, but Texas is gaining some steam coming into this matchup after beating Vanderbilt the last time out.

What do the analytics predict as the Bulldogs welcome the Longhorns in this SEC matchup?

For that, we turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Georgia and Texas compare in this Week 12 college football game, and use it to lock in our own projection.

Georgia vs. Texas score prediction

The models favor a win for the home team in this matchup, but by a very close margin.

SP+ predicts that Georgia will defeat Texas by a projected score of 27 to 23 and will win the game by an expected margin of 4.4 points in the process.

Georgia is given a solid 61 percent chance to defeat Texas outright in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 286-281 against the spread with a 50.4 win percentage. Last week, it was 23-28 (45.1%) in its picks against the spread.

Who is favored?

The betting markets are solidly in favor of the Bulldogs over the Longhorns, but not by as much as a touchdown.

Georgia is a 6.5 point favorite against Texas, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 49.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Georgia at -225 and for Texas at +188 to win outright.

What we think will happen

Georgia arrives confident and composed, powered by one of the SEC’s most balanced offenses and a defense that thrives on physicality and discipline and can overcome slow starts.

Texas, meanwhile, comes in battle-tested but inconsistent, still searching for the offensive rhythm that was supposed to make it a playoff contender. The Longhorns’ recent injuries and uneven performances have left questions about whether they can keep pace for four quarters.

Expect Georgia to establish control early with its ground game and defensive pressure, forcing Texas to respond under duress. Playing in Athens amplifies the Bulldogs’ edge — Georgia’s depth and poise should carry them to a hard-earned win.

Texas +6.5
Georgia -225
Bet over 49.5 points

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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