Greg McElroy picks winner of North Texas-Tulane AAC Championship

Greg McElroy preview the matchup in the AAC title game, focusing on one team's dominant red zone scoring percentage as a point of leverage.

College football broadcaster Greg McElroy picked North Texas to win against Tulane in this year's AAC Championship. | Vasha Hunt-Imagn Images

Friday night in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game offers more than just a trophy. A spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff is likely on the line when the North Texas Mean Green clash with the Tulane Green Wave. The stakes are immense for two programs undergoing significant transition despite their combined 21-3 record.

Both head coaches are reportedly departing after the season with North Texas head coach Eric Morris linked to Oklahoma State and Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall headed to Florida.

This matchup features two high-powered teams with identical 7-1 conference records battling for Group of Five supremacy. The players on the field are auditioning for future roster spots while trying to secure a historic playoff berth for their current schools.

Greg McElroy broke down the matchup on Tuesday's episode of Always College Football. The analyst looked at the high betting total of 67.5 and the clash of styles between the two conference heavyweights. He pinpointed a specific statistical mismatch deep in opponent territory that ultimately swayed his prediction toward the favorite.

North Texas Red Zone Efficiency Decides Title Matchup

McElroy highlighted the efficiency of the Mean Green inside the 20-yard line as the deciding factor. He noted that North Texas converts touchdowns on over 80 percent of their red zone trips. The former quarterback explained that one might expect an Air Raid team to struggle when the field shrinks but the opposite occurs for this unit.

"North Texas right now has a staggering advantage in the red zone," McElroy said. "You would think for a group that throws it as much as they do, when the field condenses, they would become human in the red zone. That's not the case. They actually get better."

North Texas Mean Green quarterback Drew Mestemaker (17) has thrown for nearly 3,900 yards and 29 touchdowns this season. | Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

The matchup becomes even more lopsided when looking at the defensive statistics. The Green Wave defense ranks 84th nationally in allowing touchdowns in the red zone. They also surrender over 250 passing yards per game, which ranks 121st in the FBS. McElroy believes this weakness plays directly into the hands of freshman quarterback Drew Mestemaker and wide receiver Wyatt Young.

Tulane quarterback Jake Retzlaff leads a capable offense that must control the tempo to hide those defensive flaws. The dual-threat signal caller needs to sustain drives to keep the prolific North Texas offense on the sideline. McElroy respects the Green Wave coaching staff but simply sees too many hurdles for the home team to overcome.

Tulane Green Wave quarterback Jake Retzlaff (12) leads the team in both passing and rushing, accounting for 28 total touchdowns. | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

"There's a massive advantage right now in favor of North Texas, which is why I'm leaning to North Texas in this game," McElroy stated. "I like Tulane a lot. I love their coaching staff... but I think the passing attack is too overwhelming, and the red-zone efficiency. That's what leads me towards picking the Mean Green."

The Mean Green will face the Green Wave at Yulman Stadium in New Orleans on Friday at 8:00 p.m. ET on ABC.