Greg McElroy Predicts Iowa-Washington Winner as Hawkeyes Face a Quarterback Question

Always College Football host Greg McElroy picked a winner for Friday's Big Ten matchup between No. 20 Iowa and Washington in Seattle, where an injured Hawkeyes quarterback and a sack-prone Huskies offense could decide a low-scoring game.

McElroy took the road team on his podcast. "I'm taking Iowa to win the game 17-13. I'm not convinced that Washington can run or protect. They also struggle on third down. Iowa's defense punishes all three."

On paper, the pick is an upset. The odds have shifted more in favor of Washington as well, after opening at -1.5 and moving to -3.5.

Iowa is 4-1 and 1-1 in the Big Ten after a 31-14 home loss to Ohio State. Washington is 3-2 and 0-2 after falling 27-24 to Minnesota and 25-21 at USC, so both teams need a win to climb the latest Big Ten power rankings.

Iowa won the last meeting 40-16 in Iowa City on Oct. 12, 2024.

Hank Brown injury clouds Iowa's offense

Greg McElroy Predicts Iowa-Washington Winner as Hawkeyes Face a Quarterback Question — Iowa Hawkeyes quarterback Jeremy Hecklinski (10) looks to make a pass against the Northern Illinois Huskies | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Iowa starter Hank Brown left the Ohio State game late in the third quarter with a sprained joint in his right throwing shoulder, and coach Kirk Ferentz listed him as questionable Tuesday.

"I wouldn't say we're fully back to normal by any means," Brown said. "But we're making progress a ton."

Hecklinski replaced Brown and went 5-for-5 for 67 yards on Iowa's only touchdown drive. "Either way, Iowa wants to run the football," McElroy said.

Kamari Moulton has 311 yards on 50 carries against FBS opponents, but the Hawkeyes rank 120th nationally in rushing success rate at 36.1%. Washington's defense ranks fourth in expected points allowed per rush and holds opponents to a 32.1% conversion rate on third and fourth down, tied for seventh.

McElroy set 150 rushing yards as Iowa's target. "Since 2005, Iowa has only lost 18 times when it runs for 150 or more," he said.

How will Washington protect Demond Williams?

Washington quarterback Demond Williams Jr. has completed 67.5% of his passes for 1,327 yards with eight touchdowns and three interceptions. Still, he's taken 13 sacks against FBS opponents, and the Huskies went 1-for-12 on third down at USC.

The third-year passer has been Washington's most efficient runner, piling up 223 yards on 32 carries against FBS teams. That puts him on a collision course with an Iowa defense that ranks sixth nationally in expected points allowed per rush.

"Their receiver is Dezmen Roebuck. He's the volume target," McElroy said. "They also have Chris Lawson. He's kind of the deep shot." Lawson leads the Huskies with 253 receiving yards on 15 catches against FBS opponents.

McElroy expects Iowa to force Washington into obvious passing downs. "So Washington will probably have to throw it, and that's when the sacks come," McElroy said. "If Iowa gets three, four, five sacks, then Washington's probably not going to get to 20 points."

Washington converts 32.2% of its third and fourth downs, which ranks 124th nationally.

Jedd Fisch's first-score problem

Washington coach Jedd Fisch, in his third season in Seattle, has struggled when opponents strike first.

"Jedd Fisch is 8-25 at Arizona and Washington when the other team scores first," McElroy said. "And Iowa's offense is not really built to chase. So in a game like this, the first touchdown might count for double."

Iowa's defense ranks seventh nationally in opponent-adjusted efficiency, which fits McElroy's expectation of a slow scoreboard. "Iowa's defense has allowed just 12.5 points a game. That's tied for eighth," he said.

Kickoff is set for 9 p.m. ET on Friday, Oct. 9, at Husky Stadium on Fox or FS1.

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