Greg McElroy predicts winner of Miami (OH)-Western Michigan MAC Championship matchup

Ford Field in Detroit hosts the Mid-American Conference title game this Saturday afternoon. The Miami (OH) RedHawks aim to defend their conference standing during a third consecutive trip to the championship.

They face a Western Michigan Broncos squad seeking its first conference crown since 2016. The contest features two programs with identical conference records battling for the final prize.

These teams met earlier in the regular season on October 25 in Oxford. Miami (OH) secured a 26-17 victory in that contest behind a massive fourth-quarter scoring run. Circumstances have shifted significantly for both rosters since that October clash.

The dynamics changed most drastically for the RedHawks offense. They no longer have the dynamic starting quarterback who led the comeback effort that afternoon.

Miami (OH) head coach Chuck Martin guided his team through heavy roster attrition to reach this stage. The RedHawks relied on a stout defense and a tiebreaker scenario to secure their spot in Detroit.

They tied for second place but advanced based on winning percentage against common opponents. Western Michigan enters the game with eight wins and boasts the second-ranked scoring defense in the conference to challenge the defending champions.

Greg McElroy Shares Prediction For MAC Championship Game

Greg McElroy shared his analysis on the Tuesday episode of the Always College Football podcast. The college football analyst reviewed the key variables before making his final prediction for the title fight, ultimately picking Western Michigan to defeat Miami (OH) and hoist the trophy.

He focused heavily on the trench warfare between the Broncos' defensive line and the RedHawks' protection. Western Michigan leads the conference in sacks. Defensive end Nadame Tucker anchors that unit and ranks among the national leaders in production with over 10 sacks.

This presents a dangerous challenge for a Miami (OH) offense operating with a backup quarterback. Former starter Dequan Finn left the team recently to focus on his professional future.

Miami (OH) RedHawks wide receiver Kam Perry (10) has 865 yards and six touchdowns on 35 receptions this season. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

True freshman Thomas Gotkowski stepped in to replace Finn. Gotkowski threw three touchdowns in his first career start against Ball State. However, McElroy questioned if a freshman can handle complex pressure packages on a championship stage. The analyst expects the Broncos to utilize stunts and pressure to disrupt the young signal-caller.

"I'm taking Western Michigan," McElroy said. "I think their pass rush will overwhelm Miami's backup quarterback situation."

The other side of the ball also favors the Broncos, according to McElroy. He described Western Michigan quarterback Broc Lowry as a secondary running back who flows through their option game. Lowry has recorded 14 rushing touchdowns and nearly 900 yards on the ground.

This ground control strategy allows the Broncos to dictate the pace of play. McElroy noted that while Miami (OH) ranks 19th nationally in turnover margin and thrives on chaos, the Broncos can neutralize that factor simply by keeping the ball.

Western Michigan Broncos quarterback Broc Lowry (12) has 2,447 total yards of offense and has accounted for 21 total touchdowns this season. | Becca Mahon/Battle Creek Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

McElroy acknowledged that Miami (OH) did limit explosive plays in the first meeting. The RedHawks also excel in the red zone, where Western Michigan struggles statistically. The Broncos rank near the bottom of the FBS in red zone offense and often settle for field goals. Despite these statistical strengths for Miami (OH), McElroy believes the Broncos' clock management and physical pass rush give them the deciding edge.

"I think Broc Lowry and company can grind out enough clock to keep the game out of Miami's hands," McElroy said.

The RedHawks will face the Broncos at Ford Field in Detroit on Saturday at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Greg McElroy Shares Prediction For MAC Championship Game

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