Greg McElroy predicts winner of Missouri-Vanderbilt in Week 9

Vanderbilt’s balanced offense and Diego Pavia’s consistency convinced Greg McElroy to pick the Commodores over Missouri.

ESPN college football analyst Greg McElroy predicts the Vanderbilt Commodores will win this weekend against the Missouri Tigers. | Vasha Hunt-Imagn Images

Vanderbilt football has spent most of its modern history as an SEC afterthought, but this fall has rewritten the script. Behind head coach Clark Lea, the Commodores have powered their way to a 6-1 record and cracked the AP Top 10 for the first time since World War II. Their rise has been built on balance, physicality, and a quarterback who has become one of college football’s toughest matchups.

Diego Pavia has anchored an offense that ranks eighth nationally in scoring at 41.4 points per game. His dual-threat skill set, paired with Vanderbilt’s relentless time-of-possession approach, has kept the Commodores in control. Last week’s 31-24 win over LSU only strengthened the argument that this program is legitimate. Lea’s group doesn’t rely on flash or luck—they grind out drives, wear teams down, and play complementary football.

Missouri has taken a similar path under head coach Eli Drinkwitz. At 6-1 and ranked No. 15, the Tigers have established themselves as one of the SEC’s most complete teams. Their defense ranks fifth nationally in total yards allowed, and running back Ahmad Hardy has rushed for 840 yards and 11 touchdowns. Yet, despite Missouri’s power on the ground, one prominent analyst sees the edge elsewhere this week.

Greg McElroy Picks Vanderbilt Over Missouri in Week 9

During Always College Football, ESPN’s Greg McElroy made his pick for Saturday’s Top 15 matchup in Nashville. The former Alabama quarterback sided with the Commodores, calling them “the more complete football team.”

“I’m going to take Vanderbilt,” McElroy said. “I think they’re the more complete football team. I think they’re playing at a ridiculously high level, and I trust their quarterback a little bit more than I do the Missouri Tigers.”

McElroy highlighted several reasons for his confidence, beginning with time of possession. Both teams thrive on controlling the clock—Missouri ranks fourth nationally, averaging over 34 minutes per game, while Vanderbilt aims for a similar total. McElroy suggested that whoever wins that battle “has a chance, more than maybe any other game this season, to win the game.”

Vanderbilt Commodores quarterback Diego Pavia (2) has accounted for 19 total touchdowns this season. | Nicole Hester/ The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

He also pointed to the matchup between Missouri’s top-ranked rushing offense and Vanderbilt’s sturdy run defense. The Commodores allow under 100 yards per game on the ground and consistently create negative plays behind the line of scrimmage. Defensively, they rank among the top 12 nationally in tackles for loss and have thrived under coordinator Steven Gregory’s aggressive style.

Ultimately, McElroy’s pick came down to Pavia’s composure and playmaking ability. The Vanderbilt quarterback has accounted for 19 total touchdowns and leads an offense converting nearly 56% of its third downs, the second-best rate in college football. That kind of efficiency, combined with the home-field advantage of College GameDay’s first trip to Nashville since 2008, convinced McElroy that Vanderbilt would prevail.

The Commodores will host Missouri at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday on ESPN.