Greg McElroy predicts winner of Red River Rivalry between Oklahoma-Texas

Greg McElroy predicts Texas will edge Oklahoma in a defensive, low-scoring Red River Rivalry.

ESPN college football analyst Greg McElroy predicted the winner of this weekend's Red River Rivalry game between the Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Few games on the college football calendar capture national attention like the annual Red River Rivalry. As Texas prepares to meet Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas on Saturday, anticipation is high for one of the sport’s most historic matchups. The Longhorns are seeking redemption after a road loss to Florida, while the Sooners aim to stay perfect and keep their spot among the nation’s top teams.

This year’s meeting carries added weight, with both programs now competing as SEC members. Oklahoma enters the weekend ranked No. 6 at 5-0, while Texas sits unranked at 3-2. The Sooners have thrived under quarterback John Mateer, but his recent hand surgery could force sophomore Michael Hawkins Jr. into another start. For Texas, improvement along the offensive line is critical after Arch Manning was sacked six times in Gainesville.

Greg McElroy Picks Texas to Win a Low-Scoring Battle

On Wednesday’s episode of Always College Football, ESPN analyst Greg McElroy made his pick for the Red River Rivalry and sided with the Longhorns. “I’m taking the Texas Longhorns,” McElroy said. “I think they’ll bounce back. And while right now, I don’t really trust Texas’ offense—I don’t—I do however think the arrow is pointing up for their quarterback. I trust Texas’ offense a little more than I trust Oklahoma’s offense right now.”

McElroy said the matchup favors neither team heavily, expecting both defenses to dictate the game. “Then on defense, I trust Oklahoma’s defense more, but the gap between Oklahoma’s defense and Texas’ defense is not quite as wide,” he added.

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) has an opportunity to upend the season's narrative with a win on Saturday against the Oklahoma Sooners. | Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

“The best play of the weekend might be the under in this game. I don’t see either team really opening it up that much. They’re both great defenses. They both have offenses that have been a bit shaky. So how risky does either coach want to be?”

Texas ranks fifth nationally in scoring defense, allowing just 12 points per game, while Oklahoma enters as the nation’s top-ranked defense overall. With both teams thriving on third down and limiting explosive plays, McElroy expects the game to come down to field position and mistakes. “I think this game will be played close to the vest,” he said. “I think it’ll be a lot of field position. I think there will be a lot of capitalizing on mistakes. I’ll take the Longhorns in what should be a low-scoring game.”

John Mateer's Status, Turnover Margin Could Decide Outcome

Whether Mateer returns from surgery on his right hand remains the central storyline ahead of kickoff. The junior has thrown for 1,215 yards and six touchdowns and remains among the national leaders in total offense. If he’s unable to play, Hawkins will again start for the Sooners after leading a 44-0 win over Kent State last week.

Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian said his defense will prepare for both quarterbacks but knows Mateer presents a unique challenge. “We’ll plan for Mateer,” Sarkisian said. “You have to. He’s a dynamic player, he’s the heartbeat of that offense for sure, everything goes through him.”

Texas football defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski must continue to set the tone for the Longhorns in this weekend's Red River Rivalry game. | Ricardo B. Brazziell / USA TODAY NETWORK

Texas holds the edge in turnover margin at +3 compared to Oklahoma’s –4, which could prove decisive in a defensive battle. The Longhorns must also cut down on penalties after averaging 76.6 yards per game, while Oklahoma will need to protect the football against one of the country’s stingiest defenses.

The Red River Rivalry kicks off Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas.