Greg McElroy picks winner of TCU-BYU matchup in Week 12

Greg McElroy broke down TCU vs. BYU in Week 12, emphasizing BYU’s defense, TCU’s red zone issues, and how weather could influence the outcome.

College football analyst Greg McElroy picked BYU to win at home in Week 12 against TCU. | Vasha Hunt-Imagn Images

The matchup between the TCU Horned Frogs and the BYU Cougars in Week 12 carries added intrigue as both programs look to rebound from disappointing losses. For BYU, a once-perfect season and top-10 College Football Playoff ranking took a major hit in a 29-7 defeat to Texas Tech. TCU suffered its own heartbreak at home, falling 20-17 to Iowa State after holding a lead entering the fourth quarter.

Now, with the Big 12 race tightening, both teams face a defining test under the lights in Provo. ESPN analyst Greg McElroy broke down the matchup on Always College Football, citing BYU’s home-field advantage, balanced defense, and TCU’s one-dimensional offense as key factors. He expects weather and altitude to play a major role in shaping the outcome.

It’s a rematch between familiar foes who shared time in the WAC, Mountain West, and now the Big 12. TCU leads the all-time series 7-5, including last year’s 44-11 win, but BYU’s physicality and ability to control time of possession may make this edition a different story.

Greg McElroy Breaks Down TCU’s Offense and BYU’s Edge

McElroy highlighted several areas where BYU holds an advantage. “I’m taking BYU in this game,” he said. “I think TCU’s lack of a rushing attack will bite them here. And like Texas Tech, I think too often they’ll settle for field goals when they get in the red zone instead of scoring touchdowns.”

He added that the late kickoff, high altitude, and cold conditions could limit TCU quarterback Josh Hoover’s effectiveness. “Cold weather, altitude, and a night game are not a great recipe for a really successful passing game from the Horned Frogs,” McElroy said. “So, give me the Cougars and lay the points.”

Brigham Young Cougars running back LJ Martin (4) leads the team with 824 yards and five touchdowns on 142 carries this season. | James Guillory-Imagn Images

BYU’s defense under coordinator Jay Hill ranks among the best in the nation in red zone efficiency and turnover margin. The Cougars allow scores on less than 73 percent of opponents’ trips inside the 20-yard line. Linebacker Isaiah Glasker and defensive lineman Jack Kelly lead a front seven capable of disrupting Hoover’s rhythm.

On the offensive side, BYU leans heavily on running back LJ Martin, who entered the week among the Big 12’s rushing leaders despite recent injuries. True freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier continues to develop alongside wide receiver Chase Roberts, whose reliability gives the Cougars a steady passing option.

The BYU Cougars will host the TCU Horned Frogs on Saturday at 10:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.