Joel Klatt predicts winner for Miami-Florida State matchup in Week 6

Joel Klatt sees a close rivalry game between Miami and Florida State, with a lean towards the road favorite. He pointed first to the disappointing loss FSU had to a good Virginia team (UVA is now ranked No. 24 in the AP Poll).

“Miami four and a half point favorites on the road against Florida State... this game loses a little bit of its luster because of Florida State's loss last week... And the line suggests that Miami being only four and a half point favorites should tell you what Vegas thinks about both of these teams and what this environment and game could look like."

Florida State is coming off a 46–38 double-overtime loss at Virginia last Friday. That loss ended up costing the matchup a visit from ESPN's College GameDay. Miami beat Florida 26–7 on Sept. 20 and then had a bye, setting up two full weeks to prepare for the trip to Tallahassee. Klatt is very high on the Miami defense and their star player, Rueben Bain.

"While Florida State was losing to Virginia... Miami is coming off of a bye. So, they've been directly focused on this Seminoles team for two weeks, and Mario Cristobal and that defense more in particular, has gotten to game plan against Florida State and that unique style of offense with Gus Malzahn as the offensive coordinator and Tommy Castellanos as their quarterback. So, this great Miami defense, with I think the most impactful defender of the season so far, Rueben Bain, has gotten to completely focus on Florida State for two weeks. I think their game plan should be excellent. It really should."

Miami Hurricanes defensive lineman Rueben Bain Jr. | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Miami has allowed 76 rushing yards per game with opponents at just 2.6 yards per carry. The Hurricanes also kept Notre Dame under 100 rushing yards in the opener (93). Florida State, meanwhile, is pounding the ball for 336.3 rushing yards per game. Klatt praised Miami's overall defensive ceiling and the front's fit against a quarterback-run scheme.

"This is a defense that I believe could be as good as any in college football... The Miami defensive line is excellent. And they're athletic and they're long and they can run... What do you need to stop the quarterback-centric run game for Florida State? You need a great, athletic, fast defensive line and that's exactly what the Hurricanes have."

The rivalry tends to play tight. Miami leads the series 36–33, and the last meeting went to the Hurricanes, 36–14, in 2024. Saturday’s game is at Doak Campbell Stadium.

Miami's offense has traveled with good balance and has protected Carson Beck. Beck has thrown for 972 yards and seven touchdowns through four games, and the Hurricanes are allowing 11.5 points per game on defense. Klatt ended up siding with Miami for the game.

"I like Miami a lot... I've got Miami covering the four and a half. I think they win this ball game in a good one, but they win it 27–20."

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