Joel Klatt predicts winner for Texas-Florida matchup in Week 6

"How does Florida score?" Joel Klatt asked, laying out why he"s giving the 6 and half with Texas and projecting a 21–12 Longhorns win over Florida. His case leans on Pete Kwiatkowski's defense, which has been elite so far this year (even as the offense has struggled at times), and on a Florida attack that has fallen apart as the season has gone on.

Joel Klatt begins his analysis with from the lens of the defense. "Texas at Florida: Classic trap game," Klatt said. "Got to love this. Two really good defenses in this one. Texas's defense has only allowed four touchdowns total on the year. Florida's defense has only allowed five touchdowns total on the year. So, my question would be, which offense is going to get going?"

Texas ranks No. 4 nationally in total defense (212.0 yards per game) and No. 2 in scoring defense (7.8 points per game). Texas is balanced at all three levels and has limited opponents to 59.8 rushing yards per game, which is No. 4 nationally entering Week 6. Florida, meanwhile, has averaged 11 points per game in its last three outings against FBS opponents.

Arch Manning heads to his second true road start, but Klatt expects a cleaner game after a rhythm-restoring win over Sam Houston. "Well, even though both of these offenses have struggled, I would say that the one that I think can break out would be Texas. We saw it against Sam Houston. I think there's elements that they can lean on. I do think Arch [Manning] will play better. Remember, this is going to be his second road environment that he's faced this season after seeing Ohio State week one."

Florida's path is DJ Lagway and the Florida offense finally being able to break through their slump but Klatt isn't confident that will happen. The Texas defense is better than LSU and USF's units, so there might not be much hope for them.

"My question is how does Florida score? Because everyone has adjusted to DJ Lagway," Klatt said. "DJ Lagway last year, part of his success and part of the excitement building towards this year was the big plays and the splash plays. What we have not seen him do is orchestrate and operate the system with any consistency in order to create scores without the big plays. Defenses have adjusted. If you take away the ability to have a big play with soft zone coverage, so on and so forth, then guess what? Like, where do they go from there? Where do they go? And by the way, Florida's facing a Texas defense that I think is the second best defense in the sport."

"Let's put it this way. LSU is playing good defense this year. Yeah I'll give you that. Is Texas better defensively than LSU? Yeah. Is Texas better defensively than South Florida? Yeah. So, now you get where I'm going, where does Florida go? How do they score if they're not getting the big plays, which I don't think they'll get? Texas is too good at taking away the big plays... So, at best, I think Florida is kicking a bunch of field goals... teams have adjusted. Lagway and Florida have not. Billy Napier, I think, is primed for another loss right here."

Klatt's 21–12 call has Texas covering but it could be another lackluster offensive showing for the Longhorns. Although, with Red River looming, Texas will gladly win methodically and get on the plane. No. 9 Texas will go on the road to play Florida this Saturday (Oct. 4) and kickoff is set for 3:30 PM EST.

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

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