Joel Klatt predicts winner of Oregon-Iowa matchup on Saturday

No. 9 Oregon visits No. 20 Iowa on Saturday in a matchup FOX Sports analyst Joel Klatt framed as a tricky, low-possession game: Iowa's defense and special teams thrive on creating short fields, and sloppy weather could make this game closer than initially expected. Kickoff is 3:30 p.m. ET at Kinnick Stadium on CBS.

Oddsmakers list Oregon as a 6.5-point road favorite with a total between 40.5 and 41.5, and forecasts call for cold rain and wind — the exact recipe that can make an upset possible. Klatt, on his show this week, emphasized Iowa's ability under longtime coordinator Phil Parker to squeeze games, force turnovers in zone concepts, and capitalize on just one miscue.

Iowa owns a top-10 rushing defense (83.9 yards per game) and a top-five scoring defense (13.1 PPG) through Week 10, while Oregon counters with the nation's stingiest pass defense (124.6 YPG).

For Oregon, the mandate is a clean day from quarterback Dante Moore and a steady run game. Moore enters with 1,772 passing yards, 19 TDs and four interceptions, but his one bad game came in the Ducks' lone loss — two interceptions and six sacks in a 30-20 defeat to Indiana at Autzen. Iowa's front and eyes-on-the-ball secondary will look to make that happen again.

"They're [Iowa] going to play this complimentary style of ball. They're going to play great defense. They're going to run it. They're going to shrink the game. And then if you make one mistake, they capitalize. And that's the fear if you're an Oregon fan."

Iowa's offense has the ability to complement its defense. Transfer quarterback Mark Gronowski has been more dangerous as a runner than a passer so far with 313 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns.

"I'm just telling you this is a dangerous game for Oregon. A dangerous game. And it’s not just because Iowa always plays well at home. This specific Iowa team has gotten better and better in the specific areas that they need to get better, namely the offensive line."

Iowa Hawkeyes tight end Zach Ortwerth | Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

If conditions are bad, Oregon can lean on depth in the backfield. Over the past two games, Noah Whittington (125 and 97 rushing yards) and freshman Jordon Davison (100 and 102) combined for 424 rushing yards as the Ducks bulldozed Rutgers and edged Wisconsin. That downhill running ability will matter in the cold.

There's a pretty big common opponent for both teams as they have each been nicked by Indiana. The Hoosiers stunned Oregon 30-20 in Eugene on Oct. 11; one game earlier they stole a 20-15 win at Iowa with a 49-yard touchdown in the final two minutes.

Joel Klatt's pick for Oregon-Iowa

"Take the points... Oregon is going to find a way to win the game... They win it [17–13], but I'm taking the 6.5 with Iowa."

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Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

Joel Klatt's pick for Oregon-Iowa

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