Joel Klatt raises the stakes in "Holy War" matchup between BYU and Utah

Fox analyst Joel Klatt cast Saturday's Holy War as a Big 12 separator with New Year's stakes and picked No. 23 Utah to win and cover at No. 15 BYU. "This is a giant game. Utah is a 3.5-point favorite in this one. You've got BYU undefeated, you've got Utah with only the one loss to Texas Tech, who we now know is one of the better teams in college football," Klatt said. "The winner of this game [has the] inside track to go and play for the Big 12 championship... I'd be shocked if it's not Texas Tech [on the other side]."

"It's going to be nasty defensive oriented early in this game," Klatt said. "This is as nasty a rivalry as there is in college football."

Klatt's confidence in Utah hinges on quarterback Devon Dampier's health and the Utes' run game. "They've gotten back on track... Dampier looks healthy. He was not healthy in that Tech game," Klatt said, noting the QB's burst last week. "Against Arizona State [he] rushed for 120 yards... Dampier being healthy makes me believe this Utah offense could be explosive, in particular running the football." Utah has responded to its Sept. 20 loss to Texas Tech with dominant wins over West Virginia and Arizona State; Dampier ran for 120 yards and three touchdowns in the 42–10 win over ASU.

BYU's blueprint is different. "I know BYU's played well on the defensive side, but this is an offense that I just don't think is going to be able to score a ton of points," Klatt said, while also crediting freshman QB Bear Bachmeier and RB LJ Martin. "As a true freshman, [Bachmeier] has come in and played really well and allowed them to run the football well with LJ Martin... kind of a two-headed monster there. LJ Martin [is] averaging over 100 yards per game." Bachmeier leads BYU in passing (1,220 yards), while Martin tops 100 rushing yards per game (652 yards in six games) for the unbeaten Cougars.

Brigham Young Cougars wide receiver Cody Hagen | Aryanna Frank-Imagn Images

Scheme is the deciding factor for Klatt in the matchup. "Utah runs so much man coverage that the box is always heavy with run defenders. If you can't get away from that man coverage or find explosive plays to get them out of that man coverage, then where do you go? Tech was able to throw the football down the field in one-on-one situations in the fourth quarter. Is BYU going to be able to do that? I don’t think so," he said. Utah does play man at one of the nation's highest rates (about 59%), a style that dares BYU to win outside while squeezing Martin between the tackles.

Klatt noted the health for BYU's defense as something to watch leading up to Saturday. "BYU's linebacker...Jack Kelly... missed last week's game... [with] an upper-body injury and so he's a bit uncertain for this one," Klatt said. Kelly exited the West Virginia game and was listed doubtful the following week, but reports indicate his status has improved and he's expected to be available for Utah.

Klatt predicts Utah "keeps this thing rolling" against a BYU offense he views as somewhat capped against that look. He called it Utah 21, BYU 13 and is laying the 3.5 points.

Utah Utes quarterback Devon Dampier | Rob Gray-Imagn Images

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