Josh Pate picks Auburn-Texas A&M winner on Saturday

Josh Pate predicts Texas A&M to win and cover against Auburn in Saturday’s SEC matchup.

Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed (10) and the Aggies are looking to extend their undefeated start to the 2025 college football season against Auburn on Saturday. | Sean Thomas-Imagn Images

College football analyst Josh Pate sees a challenging road ahead for Auburn and is siding with the home team, Texas A&M. On Tuesday’s episode of his College Football Show, Pate laid out why the Aggies are the pick, pointing to schedule dynamics, matchup tendencies, and a game script that could tilt late.

He framed his stance around the margin and the stakes for a Tigers team staring at a pivotal week in conference play.

“I’m going to take A&M to win and cover,” Pate said. “The number’s -6.5, by the way. I’m going to take A&M to win and cover. And if I’m right, that’s a tough spot for Auburn. You’re already down two conference games over this little eight-day stretch here. That’d be tough.”

Auburn enters at 3-1 following a loss at Oklahoma. No. 9 Texas A&M is 3-0 off a bye and fresh from an impressive win at Notre Dame before the open date. With the Aggies’ profile trending on explosive offense and Auburn leaning on defense and the run game, Pate’s breakdown centered on where these strengths meet and which unit is more likely to sustain it for four quarters.

Pate Cites Scheduling Edge And Aggies’ Downfield Threats

Pate underscored how Auburn’s calendar magnifies the challenge: a fifth straight game, the second leg of back-to-back road trips, and a visit to a rested opponent at Kyle Field. “Really bad schedule dynamics for Auburn,” he said, adding that Texas A&M “may be better than you anyway.”

The matchup layer that follows favors Texas A&M’s receivers. “We have not seen, at Auburn at least, a pair like KC Concepcion and Mario Craver,” Pate said. “These two are playing — especially Craver — about as well as anyone in the country is playing right now.”

Texas A&M Aggies wide receiver KC Concepcion (7) has 227 yards and three touchdowns on 13 receptions, averaging 17.5 yards per catch. | Sean Thomas-Imagn Images

Auburn’s vulnerability to big plays has shown up early, with Pate noting the Tigers are “108th in explosive passes allowed so far this year.” That aligns with how Texas A&M beat Notre Dame, where the Aggies ran for fewer than 150 yards yet “threw the ball all over the place.”

The model supports the lean as well. Pate said it is “a little north” of the market, adding, “We’ve got A&M minus seven and a half.” The Aggies’ aim, as Pate framed it, is to stress Auburn vertically and force coverage breakdowns, a plan that fits personnel and recent production. It is aggressive by design, but within Texas A&M’s comfort zone.

Auburn’s Path Runs Through Possession Control And Low Risk

Pate also outlined the Tigers’ clearest path. Auburn owns the nation’s best mark in yards per carry allowed, giving up fewer than two per attempt, which creates a fork for Texas A&M: either invert that stat or “throw the ball again.”

If the Aggies lean pass, there is volatility. “Marcel Reed won the game for them,” Pate said of the Notre Dame win, but he also pointed to “very, very interceptable balls” and the 58.6 completion percentage as part of the risk-reward.

For Auburn on offense, Pate stressed the importance of game state and identity. He does not trust Jackson Arnold to chase a deficit on the road, especially after a 10-sack afternoon against Kentucky where progressing beyond the first read proved difficult.

Auburn Tigers quarterback Jackson Arnold (11) is hoping to avoid back-to-back losses when facing Texas A&M football on Saturday. | BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The blueprint he outlined is simple and strict: a heavy ground approach with Jeremiah Cobb, quarterback runs as a staple, and drives that convert first-and-10, set up second-and-five, and finish third-and-two. That version tilts time of possession, limits Texas A&M’s snaps for Concepcion and Craver, and plays to Auburn’s strength.

The situational metrics offer a lever, too, with Texas A&M sitting at 34.3 percent on third down and Auburn’s defense allowing 28.1 percent. If Auburn can keep the script neutral, the defense and run game can set the tone.

If it drifts late, Pate warned, a single Aggies score can crack a close contest into a two-score final. Auburn will face No. 9 Texas A&M on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.