Josh Pate predicts Week 4 winner of Florida-Miami matchup

Josh Pate backs Miami to overpower struggling Florida in Week 4

Miami head coach Mario Cristobal and the Hurricanes are Josh Pate's predicted winner of the team's Week 4 matchup against the Florida Gators. | Rich Barnes-Imagn Images

College football analyst Josh Pate gave his prediction for Saturday’s Week 4 matchup between Florida and Miami. On his College Football Show podcast, Pate picked Miami not only to win, but also to cover the spread at home against the Gators.

Pate pointed to how differently the two programs look entering the primetime showdown. “It’s bad for Florida right now, and it’s great for Miami. Two worlds look totally different,” he said. Florida has stumbled through a 1-2 start, while Miami enters undefeated and ranked No. 4 in the country.

The Hurricanes throttled USF last week, the same Bulls team that upset the Gators in Gainesville. That contrast, Pate argued, highlights how Miami is in position to make a statement. “Miami is better, and I think they make a statement, just like they did opening in the Swamp last year. Florida doesn’t have to play terribly — Miami is just that much better. I’ll take them to win a competitive game and cover,” Pate said.

Florida Football’s Offensive Identity Crisis

One of Pate’s sharpest criticisms was Florida’s approach on offense. He noted the Gators are running a 57.5 to 42.5 pass-to-run ratio, despite boasting one of the best tailback groups in the SEC. Running back Jadan Baugh is averaging 6.57 yards per carry, yet has only 12 rushing attempts per game.

Pate questioned why Florida is leaning away from its ground game. “The numbers say you can trust him, but the play calling suggests they don’t,” he said. Instead, sophomore quarterback DJ Lagway has been asked to shoulder the offense. That strategy backfired badly against LSU, when Lagway threw five interceptions and looked, as Pate described, “completely lost.”

Florida Gators running back Jadan Baugh (13) has 243 rushing yards and a score on 37 carries this season. | Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

The challenge is that Miami’s defense has been stout against the run, forcing Napier into a difficult decision. Either lean on Boss against one of the top defensive fronts they will face all year, or ask Lagway to throw 35 or more times again on the road. Pate suggested that targeting Miami’s rebuilt secondary could be Florida’s best shot, but the risk of more mistakes looms large.

Why Miami Holds The Advantage Over Florida

Pate emphasized that Miami’s offense, led by Georgia transfer Carson Beck, looks well-prepared to face Florida’s defense. Beck is experienced against SEC-level competition and is surrounded by a deep group of playmakers. Rising star wideout Tony, multiple trusted running backs, and a strong offensive line give the Hurricanes balance.

Florida’s defense has allowed just two touchdowns all year and deserves respect, Pate said. But with starting defensive lineman Caleb Banks sidelined, the Gators are walking into their toughest matchup yet.

Miami quarterback Carson Beck (11) and running back Mark Fletcher Jr. (4) have carried the Hurricanes' offense that's averaging 40.3 points per game. | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Miami’s versatility stood out to Pate, who believes the Hurricanes can adapt to any tempo. “Florida may want to crawl in this game. Miami may want to sprint. But Miami can win either way. Crawl or sprint, they’re equipped to handle both,” he said.

That versatility, paired with a common opponent that tells two different stories, pushed Pate firmly toward Miami. Florida was outplayed by USF, while Miami blew the Bulls out. With momentum, home-field advantage, and a top-4 ranking, Pate believes the Hurricanes will extend their dominance in the rivalry.

Miami will host Florida at Hard Rock Stadium on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET.