Texas vs. Florida Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 6

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Texas-Florida matchup in Week 6 of the college football season.

The Texas Longhorns and quarterback Arch Manning are road favorites in Week 6. / Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

After losing to the No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes to open the 2025 season, the No. 9 Texas Longhorns have double-digit wins over San Jose State, Sam Houston and UTEP to put themselves at 3-1 entering their first SEC game of the 2025 season.

Texas hits the road to play the Florida Gators and DJ Lagway, who are off to a slow start in the 2025 season. Florida knocked off Long Island University in Week 1, but it has dropped three games in a row, including a 26-7 loss to Miami in Week 4 where Lagway threw for just 61 yards.

The Gators are now facing their third ranked opponent in a row, as they’ve lost to LSU and Miami in back-to-back games. It’s pretty clear that the Gators aren’t contenders for the College Football Playoff, but can they upset a Texas team that hasn’t been battle tested since Week 1?

Oddsmakers have the Gators set as 6.5-point underdogs at home in this matchup, and they’ve lost by two, 10 and 19 points in their last three games, failing to cover the spread in all of them.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, key players to watch and my prediction for this SEC clash in Week 6. 

Texas vs. Florida Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Texas -6.5 (-112)
• Florida +6.5 (-108)

Moneyline

• Texas: -245
• Florida: +200

Total

• 41.5 (Over -112/Under-108)

Texas vs. Florida How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, Oct. 4
• Time: 3:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Texas record: 3-1
• Florida record: 1-3

Texas vs. Florida Key Player to Watch

Arch Manning, Quarterback, Texas

This is a chance for Arch Manning to make a statement after a lackluster showing in Week 1 against a Power Four opponent in Ohio State.

Manning has rebounded nicely against some subpar competition in the last three games, and he’s thrown for 888 yards, nine scores and three picks this season while adding 123 yards and five rushing scores. 

Florida may be just 1-3 in the 2025 season, but it does rank 55th in the country in EPA/Play on defense, making this easily the second-toughest team Manning has faced in 2025. Can the Texas quarterback prove that he’s ready to lead this team to a College Football Playoff appearance in 2025?

Manning’s Heisman stock has tanked this season, but he could prove some of the doubters wrong with a strong showing on Saturday. 

Texas vs. Florida Prediction and Pick

It’s hard to take much away from Texas’ season to this point, as it played on the road against the No. 1 team in the country in Week 1 and then played three cupcake games afterwards.

This is one of the first real tests for Manning and the Longhorns, but I don’t think the offense will be the difference in this game.

Texas’ defense ranks 14th in the country in EPA/Play and 11th in the country in success rate, making it one of the more dangerous units in the SEC. Even though the Longhorns lost to Ohio State, they held the Buckeyes to just 14 points in that game.

This is a nightmare matchup for Lagway and the Gators, who are 115th in the country in EPA/Play on offense and 105th in success rate on passing plays. Lagway has been downright awful in 2025, throwing for just 690 yards while leading the SEC with six interceptions. 

Texas has the No. 3 defense in EPA/Rush this season, so it is likely going to force Lagway into a lot of passing situations – a bad sign for Florida.

Manning is going to have to play better than he did against Ohio State for Texas to cover in this game, but he should look a little more polished after getting a few easy tune ups in this offense. 

Pick: Texas -6.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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