Kirk Herbstreit predicts Top 10 college football upset on Saturday

In contemplating the slate of Week 11 games, ESPN broadcaster Kirk Herbstreit sees an upset in the week's biggest games. Herbstreit was candid in discussing a pick that would create no small amount of College Football Playoff chaos, as his Week 11 surprise is the home Iowa Hawkeyes springing an upset over No. 9 Oregon.

While No. 20 Iowa is an underdog by just under a touchdown at home, an upset of No. 9 Oregon, seemingly in good position for the Big Ten's third CFP spot, could shake up the entire CFP field. Speaking on College GameDay, Herbstreit delivered his rationale for the pick.

Herbstreit's Take

We've all been trained that Iowa in November, they get somebody. And this is the somebody. It's going to be Oregon. Forget the history of Iowa winning. Oregon can't run the football the way you would expect them to run the football and they can't stop the run the way you'd expect... Iowa is in a great spot. They're still in the hunt to maybe be an at-large team to get into the Playoff. I think Iowa at home wins this game.
Kirk Herbstreit

Nick Saban Chimes In

Nick Saban chimed in on Herbstreit's point, noting, "Oregon's struggles come when they can't win on the line of scrimmage. And that's the one thing that Iowa is very good at. They're going to run the ball, they're going to shrink the game, they're going to play good defense, they're going to play well up front." But egged on by Herbstreit, Saban denied the opportunity to pick Iowa to pull the upset, saying he thought Oregon would overcome the tough situation.

Oregon run struggles

While Oregon still averages out at 6.51 yards per carry, much of that yardage came early against weaker foes. In the last four games, Oregon has only one topped 4.5 yards per carry-- and that was a blowout win over Rutgers. The Ducks rushed for just 81 yards on 30 carries at Indiana, a meager 2.7 yards per carry, in their only loss of the season.

Iowa's upset history and run stopping

Iowa does have a history of winning late. In four of the past five seasons, the Hawkeyes have won a November game as an underdog. The Hawkeyes' eternal ability to stop the run have played a significant role. While Iowa in third in the Big Ten in run defense, the Hawkeyes are less than four yards per game behind overall leader Indiana. The Hawkeyes' 2.64 yards per carry allowed ties with Ohio State atop the Big Ten.

Kirk Herbstreit picked Kirk Ferentz's Iowa Hawkeyes to pull a major Week 11 upset over Oregon | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

If Iowa does pull the upset, would the Big Ten's third CFP spot disappear? Would a two-loss Iowa team than leapfrog a two-loss Oregon team to claim the last spot? Might USC be a beneficiary of a bounce? If Herbstreit's analysis proves right, the Big Ten may have some minor CFP chaos ongoing.