LSU vs. Houston prediction: Who wins the Texas Bowl, and why?

Lane Kiffin made the biggest wave in an active college football coaching carousel, but he will not be on the sideline for LSU as it lines up against a resurgent Houston in the 2025 Texas Bowl game.

Houston comes into the matchup with nine wins under second-year head coach Willie Fritz, while Frank Wilson will look to win an eighth game for LSU before he departs for Ole Miss next season.

Defense had been the calling card for LSU, but many of those players will not be in this game, while Houston is expected to play the bulk of its regular roster in search of a fourth-straight bowl win.

LSU vs. Houston: What to watch for

LSU vs. Houston football game prediction 2025 — Mike Watters-Imagn Images

1. Defensive Front vs. Run Game

LSU's defense ranks among the nation's better units in scoring and total defense, but key players like Harold Perkins and Mansoor Delane have opted out for the NFL Draft.

Houston will test this depleted front with a balanced ground attack under coach Willie Fritz, aiming to control the clock and limit LSU's possessions.

The Cougars' ability to sustain drives early could exploit LSU's transitional roster under interim coach Frank Wilson.

2. Quarterback Play and Passing Efficiency

LSU turns to sophomore Michael Van Buren Jr. at quarterback with the offense missing quarterback Garrett Nussmeier and wide receiver Aaron Anderson.

Expect a conservative scheme focused on short passes and runs, as the LSU offense has struggled to score over 25 points against FBS foes this season.

Houston's Conner Weigman must protect the ball against LSU's pass defense, which leads the SEC in interceptions, although it will have personnel losses.

3. Coaching Transition and Team Motivation

LSU’s interim staff must rally a roster hit by opt-outs and transfers, leaning into pride and bowl tradition to sustain focus for four quarters.

Frank Wilson, known for his player relationships, inherits a locker room balancing preparation with roster change. How the Tigers handle adversity and maintain discipline under unfamiliar play-calling will signal how well the their foundation holds.

Houston is playing with more roster continuity and the emotional lift of closing its second season under head coach Willie Fritz coming off a nine-win season.

His teams traditionally perform well in structured, run-first environments, precisely the traits that travel well in bowl settings.

If Houston can stay composed in big moments while LSU is adjusting defensively, coaching stability could provide a subtle but decisive edge late.

LSU vs. Houston prediction: Who wins?

LSU vs. Houston prediction football game 2025 Texas Bowl — Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

Line: Houston -1.5, 42.5

An offense that has struggled to move the ball, and a defense that will be without several of its most impactful contributors who could help win this game all conspire against LSU in this situation.

Houston has a better quarterback and an overall roster that will still mostly be in place when they step onto the field, buoyed by the motivation that they could win a 10th game to close out this season.

College Football HQ picks...

Houston wins 34-24
Covers the spread
And hits the over

More: LSU vs. Houston score prediction by expert football model

How to watch LSU vs. Houston

When: Sat., Dec. 27
Where: Houston

Time: 8:15 p.m. Central
TV: ESPN network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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