LSU vs. Vanderbilt prediction: Who wins, and why?

LSU and Vanderbilt square off in Music City in one of college football’s five matchups involving ranked teams on Saturday, and what happens here could play a role in shaping the eventual SEC title race and the shape of the playoff going forward.

Vanderbilt is a strong 5-1 overall coming into the game, but fell to 1-1 in SEC play after a loss on the road against Alabama the last time out, moving onto the second of four-straight games against ranked conference opponents.

LSU enters a tough stretch of its own with a home date against No. 4 Texas A&M and then a road game at No. 6 Alabama in the weeks to come, but hopes to get much more out of an offense that has failed to live up to its preseason potential.

LSU vs. Vanderbilt prediction: What to watch

LSU vs. Vanderbilt football game prediction 2025 — Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

1. Key Matchups on Offense

Vanderbilt’s offense ranks seventh nationally, scoring 43.2 points per game, and is led by dual-threat quarterback Diego Pavia, who is especially effective in tempo situations and RPOs.

LSU’s attack has been much less consistent, averaging 25.8 points per game, ranking 90th in the country, with quarterback Garrett Nussmeier struggling to avoid turnovers in recent matchups, recording four touchdowns and four interceptions in his last three SEC appearances.

2. Advantages on Defense

LSU’s defense ranks sixth in points allowed (11.8 per game) and is efficient at creating turnovers (tied for 29th nationally), giving them an important edge in red-zone situations.

Vanderbilt’s defense is solid, allowing 19.3 points per game (35th nationally), and is favored to have the overall according to most expert models due to its ability to disrupt opposing passing games, which could play into a persistent LSU offensive weakness.

LSU’s stout defense will be tasked with containing Vanderbilt’s high-powered offense, especially their rushing attack ranked 23rd in the country.

3. Turnovers and the Home-Field Edge

Both teams have forced 10 turnovers this season, but LSU has allowed more turnovers (8 versus Vanderbilt’s 6), which could play a decisive role if the game is close.

Home-field advantage and disciplined play give Vanderbilt a slight statistical edge, with expert models predicting they will take advantage of LSU’s inconsistent offense and recent struggles on the road.

Who is favored?

The betting markets have favored the home team in this SEC clash since the beginning.

Vanderbilt is a 2.5 point favorite against LSU, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook entering the weekend.

FanDuel lists the total at 48.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Vanderbilt at -136 and for LSU at +116 to win outright.

LSU vs. Vanderbilt prediction: Who wins?

LSU’s offensive struggles are real, as this unit has failed thus far to surpass 20 points in any game against a Power Four opponent this season, a remarkable statistic given how highly considered the offense was coming into the fall.

Part of that problem has stemmed from LSU’s inability to properly mount a consistent threat running the ball, and part of that issue has arisen from an offensive line that debuted five new starters in 2025, and who have failed to really cohere as a group yet.

Trouble could await for LSU’s backs as they go against a Vanderbilt front seven alignment that is among the 20 best in the country and the fifth-best in the SEC at repelling opponents on the ground, allowing under 91 yards per game.

Vanderbilt’s best win this year came against a reeling South Carolina team that didn’t have its starting quarterback on the field for the second half, and the Commodores look a little susceptible against better passers, allowing nearly 67 percent completion.

College Football HQ picks..

LSU wins 24-21
In an upset
And hits the under

More: LSU vs. Vanderbilt score prediction by expert model

How to watch LSU vs. Vanderbilt

When: Sat., Oct. 18
Where: Vanderbilt

Time: 11 a.m. Central
TV: ABC network