LSU vs. Vanderbilt score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for LSU vs. Vanderbilt in this Week 8 college football game.

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One of five games between ranked teams this weekend, No. 10 LSU hits the road against No. 17 Vanderbilt in college football’s Week 8 action on Saturday. Here is the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that projects scores.

LSU improved to 2-1 in SEC play after a narrow victory against South Carolina, but questions remain around the staying power of this offense, given quarterback Garrett Nussmeier’s lingering injury and the lack of production from the rushing attack.

Vanderbilt lost its first game of the season two weeks ago, on the road against Alabama, but still presents quite a challenge in the form of an offense that ranks 7th nationally in scoring with over 43 points per game behind the play of quarterback Diego Pavia.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Tigers visit the Commodores this weekend?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how LSU and Vanderbilt compare in this Week 8 college football game.

LSU vs. Vanderbilt score prediction

One of these teams is in for their second loss of the season, and right now it appears that will be the visitors in this matchup. But it will be close. Very close.

SP+ predicts that Vanderbilt will beat LSU outright in the game. But here’s where it gets tricky. The computer model technically forecasts what appears to be a score of 26 to 26.

But of course, games in college football don’t result in a tie, and the model took that fact into account when it went about calculating the final expected margin.

The computers project that Vanderbilt will finish the game 0.4 points better than LSU on the same field, or simply by 1 point if we’re rounding up.

In terms of outright victory? The model gives the Commodores a slight 51 percent advantage overall.

That translates into a very narrow statistical edge for Vanderbilt over LSU, and suggests the game is so evenly matched on paper that the final result could come down to something other than mere talent.

Field position, a big play, turnover luck, or adjustments made on one side of the other that can’t be factored into the model could play a decisive role in determining the result.

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Who is favored?

The betting markets are siding with the home team, but by a close margin.

Vanderbilt is a 2.5 point favorite against LSU, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook entering the weekend.

FanDuel lists the total at 48.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Vanderbilt at -132 and for LSU at +110 to win outright.

The game’s implied score suggests the Commodores will hand the Tigers a narrow loss.

When taking the point spread and total into consideration, it’s implied that Vanderbilt will defeat LSU by a projected score of 26 to 23.

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How to pick the game

LSU has not played up to its potential on offense this season, in part because quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has been dealing with a lingering injury, and also because of the inability of this rushing attack to build much of any momentum.

That could prove to be a concern as the Tigers’ ground game lines up against a Vanderbilt rush defense that is among the 16 best in the country right now, but LSU’s defense has the bodies up front to contain Vandy star quarterback Diego Pavia.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take...

• LSU +2.5
• Vanderbilt to win -132
• Bet over 48.5 points

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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