Analytics model predicts winner of Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh game

Notre Dame and Pittsburgh are set to square off in one of four ranked-on-ranked matchups between teams in the College Football Playoff rankings this weekend.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh predictions

As expected, the model is siding with the Fighting Irish over the Panthers, and by a decent margin.

Notre Dame came out ahead in the majority 77.2 percent of the computer simulations of the game, while Pittsburgh was the presumptive winner in the remaining 22.8 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Notre Dame is projected to be 7.9 points better than Pittsburgh on the same field, according to the 20,000 model simulations of the matchup.

If so, that would not be enough for the Irish to cover the spread against the Panthers, as Notre Dame is a 12.5 point favorite against Pitt, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 67 percent of all games and hit 57 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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