Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M in this Week 3 college football game from an expert model that projects scores.

Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M score prediction 2025 | Michael Clubb / USA TODAY NETWORK

Here’s the latest prediction for Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M in college football’s Week 3 action from an expert analytical model that projects scores.

Notre Dame is already down 0-1 this season after a three-point loss at Miami in the opener and can ill afford any more early slip-ups when it comes time for College Football Playoff selection going against a ranked SEC challenger on Saturday night.

A team’s playoff hopes aren’t exactly set in stone after two games, but a loss to a second ranked opponent in as many games would not be something the selection committee looks favorably on, so the Fighting Irish will have to put their A-game on the field.

They’ll be challenged against a Texas A&M squad that looks to have taken a big step forward on offense after securing a blue-chip transfer class that includes wide receiver KC Concepcion, and has scored 86 combined points in two games thus far.

Marcel Reed has covered more than 500 yards passing in that time, scoring 7 touchdowns in the air on 62 pass attempts, including a personal-best 4 touchdown game.

This game marks a rematch of last season’s opener, when the Irish went into SEC country and pulled off a signature win over the Aggies that was an early stepping stone towards what became a College Football Playoff national title runner-up campaign.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Fighting Irish and Aggies square off in this primetime matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Notre Dame and Texas A&M in this Week 3 college football game.

Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M score prediction

As might be expected, the models are siding with the home team against its SEC challenger, but by a fairly close margin.

Give the Irish a field goal at home.

SP+ predicts that Notre Dame will defeat Texas A&M by a projected score of 28 to 25 and will win the game by an expected margin of 2.8 points.

The model gives the Irish a close 57 percent chance to win outright over the Aggies.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 50-48 against the spread with a 51.0 win percentage.

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How to pick the game

The sportsbooks are still naming the Golden Domers as the favorite over the Aggies coming into this weekend.

Notre Dame is a 6.5 point favorite against Texas A&M, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 50.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Notre Dame at -245 and for Texas A&M at +198 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take...

• Texas A&M +6.5
• Notre Dame to win -245
• Bet over 50.5 points

A slight majority of bettors are expecting the Aggies to keep this very close on the road under the watchful eyes of Touchdown Jesus.

Texas A&M is getting 56 percent of bets to either upset the Fighting Irish outright in the game, or to keep the final margin under a touchdown in a loss.

The other 44 percent of wagers project Notre Dame will defeat the Aggies by at least a touchdown at home and cover the narrow point spread to avoid an 0-2 start.

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Computer prediction

Most other analytical football models are also favoring the Fighting Irish to take care of the Aggies this weekend.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Notre Dame is the projected favorite over Texas A&M by coming out ahead in the majority 71.2 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

That leaves the Aggies as the presumptive winner in the remaining 28.8 percent of sims.

What does that look like on the scoreboard when all is said and done? 

After running the game 20,000 times, the model projects that Notre Dame will be 5.9 points better than Texas A&M on the same field, according to the latest forecast.

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 73.5 percent of all games and hit 48.4 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

More: ESPN computer predicts Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M winner

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How to watch Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M

When: Sat., Sept. 13
Where: Notre Dame

Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: NBC network

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