Ohio State vs. Grambling score prediction from expert football model

Ohio State returns from a triumphant season opening victory over No. 1 Texas to move itself into pole position in the rankings this week ahead of its meeting with Grambling. Here is the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that projects scores.

Ohio State put on a show defensively in a signature win over the Longhorns, holding uber-hyped quarterback Arch Manning to just 170 yards, and now needs to use this occasion to give its offense some more breathing room in Week 2.

Julian Sayin put up 126 yards with 1 touchdown pass in his debut as the Buckeyes’ starting quarterback, but new play-caller Brian Hartline wants to get him more aggressive and make surer connections with Ohio State’s blue-chip wide receivers.

Carnell Tate led the side with 49 yards off 2 catches and the Buckeyes’ only touchdown against Texas, and Jeremiah Smith followed with 43 yards from 6 receptions, so there’s plenty of room for improvement for this vertical game going forward.

Grambling State itself returns a strong defensive core, and held NAIA team Langston to just 97 total offensive yards in the opener last weekend. Defensive end Bryce Cage led that effort, picking up 4 stops and a half-sack.

C’zavian Tessett went 20 of 25 passing for over 200 yards and 3 touchdowns as Grambling pulled away easily in a 55-7 rout to open the 2025 season.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Buckeyes and Tigers meet in this non-conference matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Ohio State and Grambling State compare in this Week 2 college football game.

Ohio State vs. Grambling score prediction

As you might expect, the Buckeyes are huge favorites over the Tigers in this matchup, and by the second-largest margin of any game this week.

SP+ predicts that Ohio State will defeat Grambling by a projected score of 61 to 0 and to win the game by an expected margin of 61.3 points in the matchup.

The model gives the Buckeyes a perfect 100 percent chance of outright victory.

The largest margin of victory in any game this week? That honor goes to Miami, fresh off its win over Notre Dame, and is expected to beat Bethune-Cookman by 65 points.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 23-25 against the spread with a 47.9 win percentage.

How to bet Ohio State vs. Grambling

Well, as it turns out, you probably can’t.

Good luck finding odds for this game, given how heavily favored the Buckeyes are against its FCS counterpart this weekend.

Also, it just appears like there isn’t much interest to bet on such a slanted game. That’s according to a BetMGM spokesman.

“There is less interest in these games given the lopsided nature of the matchup, and the trading team prefers to spend more time focusing on games bettors are interested in,” BetMGM spokesman John Ewing said, via The Columbus Dispatch.

Computer prediction

Predictably, all the other football analytical models also side with the Buckeyes.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Ohio State is the mega favorite in the game, projected to win outright in the vast majority of 99 percent of the computer’s updated simulations of the game.

That leaves Grambling as the presumptive winner in the remaining 1 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the matchup?

Ohio State is projected to be 58.6 points better than Grambling on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last week?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 70.8 percent of all games and hit exactly 50 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

College Football HQ prediction

After spending the entire offseason under huge pressure as reigning national champions to put on a good show against No. 1 Texas, the Buckeyes passed that massive first test.

Psychologically, that could mean this time will feel like a monkey has been pulled off their back and they can really let loose.

Or, it could mean they aren’t as efficient or as dominant as they should be because they used all their motivation on beating the Longhorns.

We’ll bet on the latter scenario, and expect they’ll open the playbook for Sayin and allow him to get aggressive with this elite receiver corps, and after building up that nice early lead, allow the run game to take over in the second half.

College Football HQ picks: Ohio State beats Grambling by 45

How to watch Ohio State vs. Grambling

When: Sat., Sept. 6
Where: Ohio State

Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: Big Ten Network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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