Ohio State vs. Penn State prediction: Who wins, and why?

See our expert college football prediction as Ohio State and Penn State face off in Week 10 — who wins, why, and what to expect in this marquee matchup.

Ohio State vs. Penn State prediction 2025 / Samantha Madar/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Talk about teams going in different directions. Ohio State is the reigning national champion and the favorite to do it again, while Penn State was a preseason title hopeful who doesn’t even have a head coach as we start November football.

James Franklin is out after a 3-3 start, now a 3-4 start, that includes a winless run in Big Ten competition as the Nittany Lions are in the midst of a full-scale program collapse that no one saw coming, especially not with all that talent coming back this season.

Now, it comes into a rivalry in which it’s lost eight-straight games and seemingly has nothing to lose, looking to throw everything it has at the undefeated Buckeyes.

Ohio State vs. Penn State matchups: What to watch

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1. Strength vs. Weakness

Ohio State’s defense is the most consistently productive in college football, ranking first in the country in scoring by allowing just 5.9 points per game and in total output, surrendering under 217 yards to opponents, and is third against the pass.

Penn State’s offense has struggled in this matchup historically, and now ranks just 110th in FBS in passing yards (185.4) per game, but is still playing well matching point for point, losing by just a combined 13 points in its historic four-game losing streak.

Ohio State plays the nation’s eighth-ranked rush defense as it goes against the Nittany Lions’ ground attack, led by Kaytron Allen, who is fifth in the Big Ten with 612 rushing yards this season.

2. In the air

Ohio State sophomore quarterback Julian Sayin has been a revelation, responsible for 80 percent of his pass attempts while covering 1,872 yards with 19 touchdowns and just 3 turnovers, emerging as a precise and poised fixture in the pocket.

Aided by a wide receiver rotation considered the greatest in college football this season, Sayin and the Buckeye offense will nonetheless be challenged by a Penn State back seven that is responsible for the fifth-best aerial defense in the country.

3. On the ground

Whatever the Buckeyes have been able to do throwing the ball has so far masked what appears to be a relative weakness when they try to build momentum on the ground.

Ohio State is good for just 3.8 yards per carry against Big Ten opponents, ranking 10th among the conference’s 18 teams, and they amass under 122 yards total per game in league play, ranking 10th.

Penn State isn’t great at defending the run, ranking 92nd in total effort, allowing more than 4 yards per carry, but surrendering just 8 total touchdowns to opposing backs.

Who is favored?

Ohio State is an 18.5 point favorite against Penn State, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 44.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -1200 and for Penn State at +750 to win outright.

Ohio State vs. Penn State prediction: Who wins?

Samantha Madar/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

It’s easy to look at Penn State and that 3-4 record and all the drama around the program and just think the Buckeyes will walk here. And it’s possible they still do, given their overwhelming defense and the inexperience of the Nittany Lions’ quarterback play.

But this series has been remarkably close in recent matchups. Ohio State has won the last eight, but the average margin has been just under a touchdown, and the last four games have been decided by only one score.

Penn State has nothing to lose and could put themselves in another gear against a rival who could be walking into a trap not thinking they’ll have to do much as such big favorites. Three touchdowns is a lot, given the Buckeyes’ inconsistent ground game.

College Football HQ picks...

• Ohio State wins 31-17
• Doesn’t cover the spread
• And hits the over

More: Ohio State vs. Penn State score prediction by expert model

How to watch Ohio State vs. Penn State

When: Sat., Nov. 1
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
Where: Fox network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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