Ohio State vs. Purdue score prediction by expert football model

Big Ten football gets underway this weekend as reigning national champion and No. 1 ranked Ohio State looks to preserve its undefeated record on the road against Purdue on Saturday.

Purdue is yet to win a game in Big Ten competition this season, but has some experience upsetting Ohio State at home, notably pulling off a stunning 49-20 result back in 2018.

What do the analytics predict as the Buckeyes and Boilermakers meet in this Big Ten clash?

For that, we turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Ohio State and Purdue compare in this Week 11 college football game, and use it to lock in our own projection.

Ohio State vs. Purdue score prediction

As expected, the simulations strongly favor the Buckeyes over the Boilers in this one.

SP+ predicts that Ohio State will defeat Purdue by a projected score of 40 to 11 and will win the game by an expected margin of 29.3 points in the process.

The model gives the Buckeyes a near-perfect 97 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 263-253 against the spread with a 55.8 win percentage. Last week, it was 29-23 (55.8%) in its picks against the spread.

Who is favored?

The betting markets predictably like the Buckeyes by several scores.

Ohio State is a 29.5 point favorite against Purdue, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 48.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -10000 and for Purdue at +3000 to win outright.

What we think will happen

Ohio State arrives with an ironclad defense that allows fewer than seven points per game and a sharply efficient offense.

Purdue, still rebuilding and winless in Big Ten play, simply doesn’t have the firepower or consistency to mount a reliable challenge.

Expect the Buckeyes to dominate tempo early, flip into cruise mode in the second half, and seal a comprehensive victory while Purdue scraps hard but falls short.

Ohio State -29.5
Buckeyes to win -10000
Take the over

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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